tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50850339729638557592024-03-13T08:56:38.521-07:00Min ZinMin Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.comBlogger104125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-58191560039486748902018-01-19T01:09:00.000-08:002018-01-19T01:48:19.756-08:00Ethnic Entertainers Make the Scene<h2>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="padding-right: 10px;">By Min Zin </span>MAY, 2003 - VOLUME 11 NO.4 </b></span></h3>
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<i>Burma’s ethnic diversity hasn’t translated into equal representation in the entertainment industry, but young ethnic stars are gradually rising above the prejudice held by the Burman majority. </i><br />
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Back in the 1970s, when Sai Khan Lait would walk the city streets to go to school at Mandalay Medical Institute, kids along the way would heckle him for his peculiar attire: an ethnic Shan outfit. When hanging around campus, schoolgirls simpered at him. When at the hospital, he would be roundly upbraided by the nurses. "As a student coming from an ethnic minority group, I was very much aware that my life would not be easy in Mandalay," says Sai Khan Lait, who has since become the most famous and respected composer of original modern music in Burma. "Those experiences were deeply personal, and compelled me to compose the song, ‘A Shan Living in Mandalay’." The song went on to become one of the biggest hits in Burmese pop music history. I don’t swap my identity with others I am proud of being a hill person But it’s not easy to be a Shan living in Mandalay —"A Shan Living in Mandalay" Like most other ethnic entertainers looking to break into the national scene, Khan Lait had to hurdle walls of discrimination and prejudice. And while much of his work reflects on his untoward encounters in the predominantly Burman cities, Khan Lait never conceals the proud fact that he is Shan. </div>
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His ethnic pride was tested, however, when he fell in love with a woman who was ethnically Burman. Heated pressure to reconsider his affection came not only from Burmans, but from his own ethnic peers as well. "After I married my Burmese wife, my Shan community freaked out," remembers Khan Lait. "They didn’t talk to me for a year." Earlier in his career, Khan Lait only composed songs in the Shan language, but his affection for his wife compelled him to start putting his music to Burmese lyrics. </div>
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But Khan Lait’s amorous exploit is not applauded by all Shan, particularly the younger generation. "I would never marry a Burmese woman," vows Sai Bo Bo, a 28-year-old model who was born and raised in Shan State. "I have a responsibility to preserve my ethnicity. I’ll surely marry a Shan woman." Not that he’s turned his back on Burma. "I see my country as a union," explains Bo Bo, "but people don’t treat one another as equals." When speaking to his friends in Shan amid Burmans, he says, the latter would deride him for his choice of language. Burmanization has proved an irrepressible phenomenon, and has served the majority Burmans well. Burmanization is a typical practice of the dominant group to ride roughshod over the minority. Bo Bo says, "It’s not only Burmans versus Shan—we can also see how Shan mistreat the Pa-O a sub-ethnic group in Shan State. I hate it." </div>
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Unfortunately, ethno-racism has plagued efforts at national unification for decades. Racist attitudes, whether concealed or flagrant, are found among all societies in various degrees and forms. But such grudges run especially deep in newer, post-colonial nations, where textbooks excoriate imperial powers for destroying the glory days of old and government statements feed citizens a steady diet of propaganda and political diatribes against outside intruders. In military-ruled Burma, however, ethno-racism thrives and proliferates in the dark. Since the country gained independence in 1948, ethno-racism has gained enormous destructive power as successive military regimes have systematically advanced such bigotry to bolster their legitimacy and to detract the masses from turmoil at home. </div>
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Burma is a mosaic of ethnic diversity, but that has not translated into equal representation in the entertainment industry. Ethnic minorities and indigenous people represent one-third of the country’s 52 million inhabitants, which speak more than 100 different languages and dialects. Yet, the Burman-dominated military is bent on Burmanizing the entire country by eliminating—through military and other means—any potentially threatening vestiges of cultural independence in predominantly non-Burman areas. </div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia"; font-size: 14px;">Thus, for young ethnic stars to make their mark on Burma’s entertainment landscape, they must assimilate into the Burman’s culture. But with this rise in popularity, observers have begun to explore the dynamics of Burma’s ethnic relations and the ethnic influence in popular culture. "When I speak Burmese, I have a difficult time adjusting my Chin accent," explains the 21-year-old superstar model, Thet Mon Myint. Born and raised in Chin State, she moved to Rangoon a few years ago after graduating from high school and is now a second-year economics student. After arriving in the capital, she gave up her given Chin name, Zung Cer Mawi, to become Thet Mon Myint. Since adopting the Burmese moniker, she says she never experiences ethnic discrimination, but actually receives encouragement from her adoring fans. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia";"><span style="font-size: 14px;">"I think many of my fans love my Chin accent." </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia";"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Accents and other indigenous traits may attract instant attention from Burmese fans in search of new tastes and sounds, but no matter how exotic the appearances or the music, penetrating a domain that has traditionally been dominated by Burmans requires courage and great sacrifice. Sung Thin Par, a celebrated ethnic vocalist, is a prime example. "When I was setting off on my first venture into music," she says, "I was strongly encouraged by my producer and others to change my Chin name and use a new, pretty Burmese name." But the 23-year-old didn’t bow to the pressure. Her name, which translates as "noble" or "treasured flower", was given to her by grandma, and Sung Thin Par explains she would rather have forfeited the opportunity to sing than to embrace a Burmese sobriquet—a wise decision in retrospect. "I’ve heard some of my fans got interested in my albums now because of my name." Other singers also refuse to compromise their ethnicity to gain acceptance from the mainstream. "Since it is known that I am an ethnic, I believe that my fans will accept me as I am," explains an ethnic celebrity requesting anonymity. "But the producers and directors may be reluctant to give me contracts." But talent, of course, is what matters most—regardless of the singers’ social, ethnic, or economic backgrounds. "At the end of the day," says a renowned movie director in Burma, "the most important thing is whether one is a good actor or performer." </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia";"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Still, many young ethnic celebrities are keen to don their traditional apparel, not so much to set them apart from the Burman majority, but to express their ethnic pride. "The times when I wear my own ethnic dress are cherished moments," says Thet Mon Myint. "When I have photo shoots for calendars and posters, I love putting on my Chin outfit." Several ethnic celebrities also want to show Burmans that traditional attire is not reserved only for special festivals or state-sponsored events, such as the Union Day commemoration. "Traditional clothes are just that—not something we wear only for formal occasions," says Sai Bo Bo. "I wear Shan trousers almost all the time." </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia";"><span style="font-size: 14px;">For some aspiring ethnic performers, Christianity marks another distinction from the Burman mainstream. Attending church was key in shaping many singers’ identity and also proved a suitable venue to sing hymns. Sung Thin Par says that she tries to sing at least one religious song on each of her albums. Hackett, the 23-year-old heartthrob, also says that his experiences in church afforded him the opportunity to nurture his musical talents. The mixed blood Karen-Karenni first entered the entertainment industry in 1999 as a dancer before becoming model. He is now cutting his first album. "My life was enriched by my faith and ethnicity," Hackett says cheerfully. "But I am not parochial. I speak Karen as well as Kayah (Karenni) at home, but I get along fine with my Burman friends." Although he refers to his mother’s ethnicity as Kayah, the term given to the Karenni by the Burmese government in the 1950s, Hackett says his life’s mission is to improve the lives of fellow ethnic people, something that requires more than his art and performances. "My dad gave me the name Hackett. To me, it means that I must represent our region and devote my life to ethnic causes. My dad wants me to serve the development of the hill people." </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia";"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Nevertheless, nationwide popularity alone is enough to earn stars like Sai Bo Bo and Sung Thin Par adulation from their ethnic peers. Sai Khan Lait, however, cautions that while the fame and respect showered on ethnic celebrities by all quarters of Burmese society is certainly a step forward, further progress is needed. The bigger test, he explains, is whether the talents of these entertainers can lead to a better understanding between the marginalized ethnic people and the Burman majority. Sai Khan Lait has reason to be skeptical. He was recently approached by a Burman video director who asked permission to make a video comedy based on the hit single "A Shan Living in Mandalay." It is a deeply personal song that he says reflects the trying experiences of all ethnic people. "I was shocked and saddened by the proposal," he says. "Does he want to make fun of ethnic sentiments?" The lyrics he composed for that song over three decades ago still appear to ring true today: The life and experience of a Shan Who tries to settle in Mandalay Is the same as before.</span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia"; font-size: 14px;"> </span></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-16072356163327147432016-02-04T01:28:00.000-08:002016-02-04T01:28:34.102-08:00Aung San Suu Kyi, the Dragon's Lady<h3 class="kicker" style="font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 0.75rem; letter-spacing: 0.075em; line-height: 1rem; margin: 0px 0px 32px; text-transform: uppercase;">
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<span style="color: #cc0000;">Aung San Suu Kyi, the Dragon's Lady</span></h1>
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<br /><br />YANGON, Myanmar — When in November Sai Win Myat Oo, a candidate from the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, ran for a seat in the Parliament of Shan State, in southern Myanmar, he was confident in his chances of being re-elected. The people of his constituency had consistently voted for the local Shan party in the past.<br /><br />Yet he lost to a candidate from the National League for Democracy (N.L.D.), the majority-Bamar party led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, which swept the general election last year, winning some 80 percent of contested seats in the national Parliament. Apparently, it was the ethnic Wa people of Shan State, many of whom resettled there from northern parts of country in the late 1990s, who cast the decisive votes.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Rumor has it they had received instructions to vote for the N.L.D. from the United Wa State Army — at 30,000-strong, the most powerful rebel group in the country — which is headquartered on Myanmar’s border with China. Chinese sources I spoke to in academe and the intelligence services denied that Beijing had anything to do with those directives. But one senior Shan politician and three Myanmar military insiders said they thought it was Chinese influence that had swung the Wa votes in Shan State.<br /><br /><br /><br /><img height="400" src="http://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/01/22/opinion/22zin/22zin-articleLarge.jpg" width="400" /><br /><br />Credit<br />Dominic McKenzie <br /><br /><br />Why would Beijing, which has long backed Myanmar’s military regime and refused to engage with pro-democracy parties, now support the N.L.D.? One reason is that in recent years it saw the political tide turning in Myanmar. Another is that it has come to think of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi as a consummate pragmatist, and at a time when the Myanmar army, known as the Tatmadaw, was making political and military overtures to the United States and its allies.<br /><br />But Beijing’s rapprochement with the N.L.D. now threatens the legitimacy of Myanmar’s generals on issues they have long considered to be within their exclusive purview: foreign policy, border affairs, national security, federalism. So while improved relations between China and the incoming N.L.D. government could help quiet unrest in border areas, they could also upset the uneasy balance of power among Myanmar’s elites in Naypyidaw.<br /><br />China’s relations with Myanmar have ebbed under President Thein Sein, down to lows not seen since the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s, when anti-Chinese riots broke out and Beijing began backing Communist rebels in Myanmar. Ties had then slowly improved because both Deng Xiaoping and the military-led socialist government in Myanmar maintained a neutral foreign policy.<br /><br />After a military junta took power in 1988, relations graduated to the level of strategic partnership. That the West promptly marginalized the junta and slapped it with sanctions helped matters along, and for the next two decades political, economic and military cooperation between China and Myanmar deepened. Myanmar offered China natural resources and strategic access to the Bay of Bengal, among other things. Beijing provided Myanmar with aid, arms and military training, as well as diplomatic cover.<br /><br />Relations soured again when the Myanmar government started to liberalize in 2010. In 2011, the now-nominally democratic government in Naypyidaw suspended construction on the massive Chinese-funded Myitsone hydropower dam project. This was largely in response to local opposition to environmental damage and abusive Chinese business practices. But Beijing saw the move as another sign that the Myanmar government was trying to move away from its zone of influence. It reviewed its Myanmar policy.<br /><br />In recent years, the Chinese government has courted opposition groups and critics of the Myanmar government — hosting, sometimes even feting, journalists, civil society leaders and representatives from ethnic groups and political parties, including Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior N.L.D. officials.<br /><br />Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, for her part, has adopted positions that are generally accommodating to China’s interests, including some that seem to cut against the N.L.D.’s stated policies, such as the importance of public buy-in in major foreign projects.<br /><br />To the dismay of some N.L.D. voters, she has said little to challenge the Myitsone project, and has come out in support of a controversial Chinese copper mine, even after the police cracked down on protesters opposing it. She has praised China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, a centerpiece of the foreign policy and development strategy of President Xi Jinping. Although she once pleaded with the international community, “Please use your liberty to promote ours,” she has been noticeably quiet about human rights issues in China, including the imprisonment of Liu Xiaobo, a fellow Nobel Peace Prize Laureate.<br /><br />The Chinese government, meanwhile, seems to have been stirring low-level trouble along the border in order to gain leverage and push its interests, both strategic and economic, in Myanmar. Lately, it has increased its patronage of local ethnic armed groups, especially the United Wa State Army and the Kokang army. Senior Myanmar officials allege that the Kokang insurgency, also in the north, flared up again in 2015 thanks to armament, logistical support and troops provided by China.<br /><br />The Tatmadaw is now in an awkward position: Any improvement of relations between Beijing and Naypyidaw under an N.L.D. government would be a double-edged sword. Myanmar’s generals would surely welcome some respite from ethnic strife in the north, but they hardly want to be seen as outsourcing security issues to an elected civilian government.<br /><br />Which may explain why the Tatmadaw has recently taken to describing its fight against ethnic rebel groups as an effort to defend the country’s integrity and sovereignty, rather than as a simple counterinsurgency campaign. By casting local civil conflicts in broader geopolitical terms, it hopes to establish that it is indispensable.<br /><br />Several political and military officials in Myanmar and intelligence officers in Yunnan have told me they expect Beijing and the N.L.D. to strike some kind of arrangement after the N.L.D. forms a new government in a few months. China would press ethnic rebel groups to cooperate with the N.L.D. on a national cease-fire accord, handing Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi a victory that has eluded the current government. In exchange, the N.L.D. would yield to important Chinese interests in Myanmar, such as major infrastructure and investment projects.<br /><br />This leaves the Tatmadaw with few cards to play. It cannot try to undermine Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s legitimacy or win support from the West by stoking anti-Chinese sentiment — at least not without also running the risk of triggering an aggressive response from China in the northeast. (Or else it would have to go all out, and invoke the clauses in the 2008 Constitution that entitle the military to take power in the case of a national emergency.)<br /><br />However much the prospect of greater cooperation between the new N.L.D. government and China irks them, Myanmar’s generals may nonetheless be willing to accept it — so long as civilian authorities consult them first. So far Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has seemed willing to work with the Tatmadaw; she would do well to continue if she hopes for further rapprochement with the Chinese. Peace between Myanmar’s Lady and its generals runs through Beijing.<br /><br /><br />Min Zin is a contributor to Foreign Policy’s blog Democracy Lab, and serves as a Myanmar expert for think tanks and NGOs like Freedom House.<br /><br /><br />Follow The New York Times Opinion section on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nytopinion">Facebook</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/NYTOpinion">Twitter</a>, and sign up for the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/newsletters/opiniontoday/">Opinion Today newsletter</a>.<br />A version of this op-ed appears in print on January 22, 2016, in The International New York Times. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/todayspaper/index.html">Today's Paper</a>|<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp839RF.html?campaignId=48JQY">Subscribe</a><div class="byline-dateline" style="color: #333333; float: left; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.4375rem; margin-right: 45px; margin-top: 4px;">
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-77207063481132631152015-11-04T14:46:00.002-08:002015-11-04T14:46:36.180-08:00<h3 class="kicker" style="font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: 300; letter-spacing: 0.075em; line-height: 1rem; margin: 0px 0px 24px; text-transform: uppercase;">
<span style="color: red;"><span class="kicker-label" style="font-size: 1.25rem; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 1.5rem; text-transform: none;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/opinion/index.html" style="text-decoration: none;">The Opinion Pages</a></span> <span class="pipe" style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 8px; vertical-align: text-bottom;">|</span> OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR </span></h3>
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<span style="color: red;">In Myanmar, a Soft Coup Ahead of an Election</span></h1>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">Campaigning formally started on Tuesday for Myanmar’s first general election since the end of direct military rule, but don’t be fooled by the display of colorful logos and slogans from various political parties: The army is back in force.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">Military apparatchiks in the nominally democratic government have refused to amend the Constitution to allow the opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to run for the presidency. Last month, Thura Shwe Mann — a rival of President Thein Sein, a high-ranking general in the previous military government — was forcibly removed from his position as chairman of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (U.S.D.P.).</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">The purge was more than standard internecine strife; it was an internal coup by the president and his traditional backers, mostly among the military. It was also a sign that with an election just weeks away, the army is eager to reassert control over Myanmar’s political process, and remind all contenders for power that it will allow liberalization only so long as reform ushers in what top generals have called a “discipline-flourishing democracy.”</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">The rivalry between Mr. Thein Sein and Mr. Shwe Mann, also a senior general in the former junta, is long-standing.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">But lately Mr. Shwe Mann had proved too good at leveraging his position as speaker of the lower house of Parliament to cater to the clientelistic interests of some legislators, offering them higher salaries and pork-barrel spending. He had also been building bridges with the opposition and had dared to challenge the military directly.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">Some weeks ago, the army chief wrote a three-page letter to Mr. Shwe Mann detailing his missteps: among other things, supporting Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s call for a high-level political dialogue, and backing a bill proposing to lift the army’s veto authority over constitutional reform. In late July, the army circulated a petition to impeach him.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">When last month Mr. Shwe Mann and other U.S.D.P. leaders rejected more than half of the retired senior officers the army had preselected as candidates to put on the party’s ticket for the November election, the generals had had enough. Late at night on Aug. 12, the Ministry of Home Affairs, which is directly controlled by the military, sent some 400 police officers to surround U.S.D.P. headquarters and obtain Mr. Shwe Mann’s demotion.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">That show of force smacked of the strong-arm tactics favored by the old junta. Thura Aung Ko, an ally of Mr. Shwe Mann who was also recently sacked from a senior position at the U.S.D.P., told the media that Than Shwe, the general who led Myanmar from 1992 to 2011, probably had played a role in the purge. Party insiders I have spoken to over the past few weeks said the same thing.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">U Htay Oo, who now chairs the U.S.D.P. along with Mr. Thein Sein, told me that Mr. Than Shwe regards the party — whose predecessor he founded two decades ago — as his brainchild, and that he had planned for it and the army to jointly run Myanmar for several decades after the country’s ostensible move toward democracy in 2010. Mr. Shwe Mann’s rising influence seems to have forced Mr. Than Shwe’s hand, convincing him that the military needed to step in to save his vision of the U.S.D.P.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">Mr. Shwe Mann has remained speaker since being deposed as party leader. (There are rules about how to strip him of that post, and the army apparently is bashful enough not to bypass them.) He has been keeping a low profile. Yet to the dismay of the military and the party’s new leaders, Parliament voted to suspend discussion of a bill proposing his impeachment: Mr. Shwe Mann’s power may have been undercut, but he does not stand alone. Distrust between the army and civilian politicians has continued to grow in the meantime, as the military has resumed pushing for more senior officers to be included on the U.S.D.P.’s ticket.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">When the people of Myanmar vote on Nov. 8, they will be electing representatives for 75 percent of the seats in Parliament; under the Constitution the other 25 percent are reserved for the army. All legislators will then elect the president by a simple majority from among three vice presidential candidates: two nominated by each house of Parliament, the third designated by the military.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi cannot be a candidate for the presidency, but her party, the National League for Democracy, is nonetheless expected to do well in the popular vote — and perhaps well enough to have some clout in choosing the next president. Except that, of course, with the military’s one-quarter quota of the seats in Parliament, the system is inherently stacked against the opposition.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">To win the presidency, the candidate backed by the N.L.D. and its allies would need to secure a supermajority among the nonmilitary members of Parliament. Yet a candidate from the U.S.D.P. who was endorsed by the army, being assured the votes of military representatives, could become president even if the party lost the popular vote.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">Mr. Thein Sein’s putsch against Mr. Shwe Mann put a dent in the legitimacy of the government — which is now redoubling efforts to secure a major cease-fire agreement with ethnic armed groups so it can claim to have ended Myanmar’s long-running civil war. But by sidelining a leading figure of the U.S.D.P. whom Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi had called an ally, the president managed to undermine two rivals at once while consolidating his ties with the military. The army, for its part, is once again manipulating Myanmar’s political scene to ensure that it remains in charge, election or not.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><i>Min Zin is a contributor to Foreign Policy’s blog Democracy Lab, and serves as a Myanmar expert for think tanks and NGOs like Freedom House.</i></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, times new roman, times, serif;">A version of this op-ed appears in print on September 12, 2015, in The International New York Times. Today's Paper|Subscribe</span></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-86616596425323322542015-08-18T00:15:00.000-07:002015-09-12T00:19:21.822-07:00Is Burma’s Opposition Ready for the Post-Aung San Suu Kyi Era?<h1 class="post-title" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(167, 169, 171); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; font-family: Tiempos, georgia, serif; line-height: 3.875rem; margin: 0.65rem 0px 0px; padding: 1rem 0px 0.5rem; vertical-align: baseline;">
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Burma has a national election coming up in a few months, and its outcome is uncertain. But one thing is already clear: Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and the immensely popular leader of the democratic opposition, won’t be a candidate for president. That’s because the country’s military-dominated political establishment has <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/25/a-big-disappointment-for-democratic-hopes-in-myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-elections-constitution/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">refused</a> to countenance any changes to the current constitution, which includes strictures that prevent her from becoming head of state.</div>
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And that, in turn, means that the opposition movement already has to start addressing an impending leadership vacuum. The problem has been compounded by Aung San Suu Kyi’s refusal to cultivate a successor. The election, scheduled for Nov. 8, would seem to offer an ideal opportunity for cultivating a new generation of political activists and pro-democracy politicians — not least because Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), currently doesn’t even have enough qualified candidates to contest every constituency that’s up for grabs. Yet when she recently had a chance to bring some fresh blood into her party’s electoral list, the Lady (as her admirers call her) demurred.</div>
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The general public, as well as a majority of the members of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, are keen to see her seek unity with the largest and most respected pro-democracy group outside the NLD — namely the 88 Generation, made up of the leaders of the 1988 student-led uprising that transformed Burmese politics. (Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of activists were killed in the crackdown by the ruling military junta at the time.) The NLD’s Central Executive Committee had urged including leading members of the 88 Generation on the party’s electoral list. Yet the Lady recently <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/world/southeast-asia/suu-kyis-party-shuns-pro-democracy-activists-from-running-under-its-banner-in-myanmar-election" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">shocked</a> many of her supporters by rejecting the applications of more than 20 candidates (the precise number is unclear). She accepted only one.</div>
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The 88 Generation and Aung San Suu Kyi are old allies in the fight against dictatorship. The student revolt gave Aung San Suu Kyi her first opportunity to present herself as a national political leader. The NLD even adopted the student union’s symbolic fighting peacock as its own symbol. For more than a quarter-century, the members of the 88 Generation have supported Aung San Suu Kyi with unyielding faith. Its members endured harsh consequences for their loyalty, including long stints in prison. This year the group even stood by the Lady during her fruitless campaign to pressure the military into allowing constitutional amendments that would enable her to run for the presidency.</div>
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The NLD leaders’ rejection of the new recruits thus came as a particular shock. Observers were particularly caught off guard by Aung San Suu Kyi’s <a href="http://www.dvb.no/news/no-room-for-ko-ko-gyi-on-nld-candidate-list-burma-myanmar/55451" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">refusal</a> to accept Ko Ko Gyi, a top leader of the group who spent over 17 years in prison for his political activities and who is widely regarded as a rising political star.</div>
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The Lady’s decision prompted unprecedented complaints and street protests by NLD activists across the country, who claimed that her ruling flouted party procedure. Hundreds of local NLD officials have either resigned or been expelled by the party as “<a href="http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/15945-fury-over-nld-candidate-list-continues-to-spark-protests.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">punishment</a>” for their refusal to go along.</div>
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Inside sources in both the NLD and the 88 Generation told me that the decision to turn down the new arrivals was Aung San Suu Kyi’s own. “She was afraid to recruit politically influential figures because she does not want any rivals for the throne of the party or the country,” said one former high-ranking party official. Key members of the 88 Generation told me that Aung San Suu Kyi said she was worried that accepting the newcomers might stimulate factional conflict within the party.</div>
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The paradox is painful. The woman who once articulated a powerful philosophy of “<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Freedom-Fear-And-Other-Writings/dp/0141039493" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">freedom from fear</a>” now seems to have succumbed to it.</div>
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Aung San Suu Kyi’s rejection of the 88 Generation is not an isolated case. The party’s relations with other political allies are also strained. The NLD recently decided to contest almost every constituency in the states dominated by ethnic minority groups, which are usually represented by their own political parties — parties that are also natural friends of the NLD because of their opposition to the authoritarian policies of the central government. The NLD declined to negotiate with the ethnic minority parties about candidates and voting districts, deciding instead to treat the local political groups as outright electoral competitors. One of the most respected ethnic minority leaders, who once headed a body that brought together representatives of the NLD and the ethnic minority parties, has <a href="http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/16015-ethnic-party-angered-by-nld-s-broken-promises-on-seat-sharing.html#.VdGwCsBgGWg.facebook" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">accused</a> Aung San Suu Kyi and her party of “lying” to the ethnic minority political parties about their election plans.</div>
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The NLD also has poor relations with civil society groups, which used to be staunch supporters of the party. These groups accuse the party of disregarding democratic principles, above all its reluctance to denounce harsh government crackdowns on public protests, particularly the recent student demonstrations for an education reform bill. In June, NLD officials sought the help of civil society groups in checking for flaws in voter registration lists. Only a dozen groups, a small fraction of the total, agreed to cooperate with the NLD. Since then, though, even this limited collaboration has fallen apart.</div>
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So why has the Lady chosen to burn her bridges like this? There are two possible answers.</div>
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First, she believes that she can still lead the NLD to a landslide election triumph. She is firmly convinced that she can rely on her personal standing to carry her to victory. She has <a href="http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/rules-08112015182441.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">urged</a> the crowds who greet her at rallies to “vote for the party, not the name of the candidate,” according to Radio Free Asia. Observers believe it is highly likely that the NLD will win the popular vote and control of the lower house of parliament, but that still won’t give it control of the government or the presidency, given the constraints placed upon Burma’s political system by the current constitution, which was drawn up under the old military regime.</div>
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Second, Aung San Suu Kyi has apparently been banking on her recent political friendship with Shwe Mann, the speaker of parliament, to help her forge a post-election coalition. Some NLD insiders had suggested that Aung San Suu Kyi might endorse Shwe Mann — himself a former general with ties reaching deep into the political establishment — as a presidential candidate, rather than someone from her own party. Her hope, apparently, was that, once in power, Shwe Mann would push through the reforms that would enable her to run for president later on. This strategy would help to explain her rather cavalier attitude toward so many of her longtime allies.</div>
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The generals, however, have now thwarted this plan. On Aug. 12, in what some have described as a miniature “coup,” the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/world/asia/in-myanmar-Thura-Shwe-Mann-is-removed-as-chairman-of-ruling-party.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">purged</a> Shwe Mann from his post as the head of the party (thus effectively robbing him of his power base in parliament). His fate now appears precarious, and his alliance with Aung San Suu Kyi has become a liability. (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/15/us-myanmar-politics-idUSKCN0QK0DV20150815" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a> that Shwe Mann was removed from the USDP thanks to his “ties to rival party leaders,” citing the president’s spokesman.) The political demise of Shwe Mann now dramatically narrows Aung San Suu Kyi’s options in post-election horse-trading. The loss of her ally from the ruling elite may well mean the end of her last chance to achieve the presidency.</div>
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Aung San Suu Kyi’s strategic blunder on alliance politics has not only created a leadership vacuum within her party. It is also likely to prompt a split within the main opposition party once the elections are over. Her authoritarian leadership style, her failure to build up proper party institutions, and the likely inflow of opportunists after an election victory will all contribute to a more fragmented party in the future.</div>
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Unless the second-tier leaders of the overall opposition movement begin serious preparations for the post-Aung San Suu Kyi era, the movement will face serious problems. Even if the NLD wins the most votes in the November election, Burma will still have a long way to go before it achieves anything remotely resembling a democracy. But the country might get there a little bit faster if the new generation of opposition leaders can find a way to unify the pro-democracy movement once again.</div>
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<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: Solido, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The photo above shows Aung San Suu Kyi registering as an election candidate at a district court in Rangoon.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Photo credit: Ye Aung Thu/AFP/Getty Images</span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 615.046875px;">
<span class="image-credit" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #666666; font-family: Solido, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Corrections, Aug. 19, 2015: Aung San Suu Kyi told supporters to “vote for the party, not the name of the candidate,” according to <a href="http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/rules-08112015182441.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Radio Free Asia</a>. An earlier version of this article mistakenly quoted her as saying, “vote for the party, without taking into consideration the ‘stature’ of those selected to contest the election, and not even giving a look at the name of the candidate.” The words “without taking into consideration the ‘stature’ of those selected to contest the election” <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/suu-kyi-urges-voters-to-forget-candidate-controversy.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">were written</a> by an <em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Irrawaddy</em>reporter when paraphrasing Aung San Suu Kyi’s remarks. Burma’s ruling party is the Union Solidarity and Development Party. An earlier version of this article mistakenly called it the Union Social Development Party. Based on an interview with the president’s spokesman, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/15/us-myanmar-politics-idUSKCN0QK0DV20150815" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a> that Shwe Mann was removed from the USDP thanks to his “ties to rival party leaders.” An earlier version of this article mistakenly attributed the quote “ties to rival party leaders” directly to the spokesman.</span></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-81824606806432867342015-05-26T16:06:00.000-07:002015-08-18T16:09:35.595-07:00Why There’s Less to Burma’s Peace Process Than Meets the Eye<span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">Why There’s Less to Burma’s Peace Process Than Meets the Eye</span><br />
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If you’ve been following the news from Burma over the past two months, you’ll have probably heard encouraging talk of a looming end to the country’s decades-old civil war. According to the headlines, negotiators from the government and ethnic rebel groups have been closing in on the holy grail of a Nationwide Ceasefire Accord (NCA), which aims to halt 60 years of ethnic conflict. Lately, though, it’s become painfully apparent that there’s a bit less to the whole story than meets the eye.</div>
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In a meeting last week, President Thein Sein urged the leaders of Burma’s political parties to work with him on launching an inclusive national dialogue aimed at creating a lasting basis for peace. The dialogue, which will include representatives from a wide variety of groups and institutions, is supposed to take a place before the general election later this year. The president described the dialogue process as a crucial precondition to reforming the constitution and establishing a federal state. According to the government’s peace roadmap, the conflict parties are supposed to draft a framework for political dialogue within 60 days of official signing of the ceasefire. The dialogue process is supposed to start within another 30 days after that.</div>
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The president is clearly eager to achieve a ceasefire agreement — a goal that has consumed enormous amounts of his administration’s energy over the past four years — as soon as possible. It’s important to remember that, even though the point of the NCA is to stop the various sides from killing each other, it’s not supposed to be a comprehensive peace agreement. Even so, reaching a ceasefire would be a major accomplishment for the Burmese president, and it’s clear that he doesn’t have much time in which to make it happen. By early 2016, he’s almost certain to have left office (since there’s little indication that he’s planning to run for a second term), and he’s eager to conclude the NCA and launch the dialogue while he’s still in power.</div>
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Yet his strategy raises questions. First of all, is it really feasible to reach the ceasefire agreement before the election? The answer is a qualified “yes,” since an NCA signed in haste will almost necessarily be fragile and incomplete. Second, will the ceasefire agreement necessarily lead to a political dialogue prior to the elections, thus promoting the broader peace-building process? Here the answer is almost certainly “no.”</div>
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Several of the major armed groups and the government reached a preliminary agreement on a draft text for the NCA on March 31, but the deal has yet to be signed. (The photo above shows President Thein Sein presiding over the March 31 negotiation.) Delegates of the rebel groups that agreed to the draft, and who have said that they would submit the text to a gathering of the ethnic leaders for final approval in early June, are now saying that they want to amend key sections.</div>
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While the United Nationalities Federal Council, an alliance of ethnic groups, has been insisting that all armed groups should be included in the NCA, the military has refused to deal with one of the alliance’s members. That exception is the MNDAA, the political organization of the Kokang, who are currently locked in intense combat with the Burmese military in their remote northeastern territory along the border with China. Even though the alliance keeps insisting on an inclusive deal, I suspect that the government can eventually manage to persuade most of the ethnic armed groups to sign the NCA, thus putting the Kokang issue aside temporarily.</div>
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And this could lead to a rather ironic situation – namely that the ceasefire might end up being signed at a moment when more people are fighting and dying in Burma’s internal wars than at any other time in recent memory. In the northeast part of the country, the Burmese military is continuing its fight with the Kachin and the Kokang and their allies; in the west, government forces are still clashing with the Arakan ethnic rebels. The Burmese military has a long history of using “divide and rule” tactics against its ethnic rebel enemies; given the current situation, one is tempted to suspect that this is one area where little has changed.</div>
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And what about the groups that do sign up for the deal? Here, too, there are a whole series of problems that have to be addressed.</div>
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Signing on to the NCA is just the first step in a long and complicated process. Ensuring that the signatories live up to their commitments under the ceasefire is going to be a challenge. Based on past practice in other conflicts, a full-fledged ceasefire agreement should commit each conflict party to establish a military code of conduct dictating how their troops should behave, as well as an independent ceasefire monitoring mechanism to enforce the code. In Burma, though, the parties have not made any corresponding agreements, so there is no real mechanism to prevent backsliding.</div>
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Establishing a political dialogue will also require plenty of complicated negotiations. First the various parties have to agree on a group of “inclusive representatives” who will draw up the framework of the dialogue. Then the parties have to figure out who will actually take part in the process.</div>
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Another major obstacle on the path to a lasting peace is the Burmese military’s declared “six-point principles.” Its most controversial demand is that the ethnic armed groups must adhere to the 2008 constitution written by the military junta that then ruled the country. The constitution maintains a leading political role for the military, including an effective veto over future amendments. The ethnic groups worry that accepting the constitution could limit their room for maneuver in future negotiation with the government. An insightful report recently published by the Netherlands-based Transnational Institute neatly captured the sentiment among the ethnic groups when it noted that “acceptance of the present political system could mean envelopment in a constitutional straitjacket that will make meaningful dialogue impossible.”</div>
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At some point the peace process also has to address even more fundamental questions arising from the need to reform Burma’s political institutions. How should a new federal structure allow the regions to share power with the center? What about policies for disarming, demobilizing, and reintegrating rebel fighters, as well as for reforming the Burmese military itself? And what can be done to end the broad range of highly destructive economic habits that have emerged during the long years of civil war, such as illegal resource extraction, land grabbing, and a rampant drug trade?</div>
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Finally, all the parties involved in the ceasefire also have to figure out how to reconcile the dialogue process with the possibility of a change in the government as a result of the election. (The precise date of the vote has yet to be determined, but right now a date in November looks most likely.) Sources close to the government have told me that the ethnic groups should seize the opportunity to sign the ceasefire agreement and enter the political dialogue before the vote. The implication is that the ethnic groups should seize what’s on offer while they can, since the next government could prove either unpredictable or more hardline. Ashley South, a consultant who has advised some of the ethnic groups, warns that a future government may not prioritize the peace process the same way that the current one does: “Indeed, a future government (especially if led by the [democratic opposition]) is likely to press the ‘reset button’ on political negotiations,” he noted.</div>
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Despite all these difficulties, though, it’s important to point out that at least one thing has changed for the better. President Thein Sein and his team deserve credit for creating a culture of dialogue where, until recently, only the principle of confrontation reigned. Today both the Burmese military and the major ethnic rebel groups are constantly being nudged back to the negotiating table by the president and his peace team even as bloody battles continue. The long-standing enemies are still talking. This is to be welcomed — even if the bar seems low to some critics.</div>
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So yes, talking is better than shooting. But those involved in the peace process still have plenty of work ahead of them if they want to prevent a return to war.</div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-36124578541549971482015-05-15T15:42:00.000-07:002015-08-18T16:11:21.589-07:00The Real Problem With Myanmar<h1 class="story-heading" id="story-heading" itemprop="headline" style="font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 2rem; line-height: 2.25rem; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;">The Real Problem With Myanmar</span></h1>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span class="kicker-label" style="font-size: 1.25rem; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 1.5rem; text-transform: none;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/opinion/index.html" style="text-decoration: none;">The Opinion Pages</a></span> <span class="pipe" style="margin: 0px 10px 0px 8px; vertical-align: text-bottom;">|</span> OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR </span></h3>
<h1 class="story-heading" id="story-heading" itemprop="headline" style="font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 2rem; font-weight: 500; line-height: 2.25rem; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;">The Real Problem With Myanmar</span></h1>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">YANGON, Myanmar — The next general election, scheduled for late this year, is not shaping up to be the benchmark of democratic consolidation that many Myanmar observers had hoped. The government, which is still largely controlled by senior military officers, has failed to strike a power-sharing agreement with either the mainstream opposition or ethnic armed resistance groups. Not only does this endanger the legitimacy of the election, it also exposes a dangerous leadership vacuum within both the government and the opposition.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; line-height: 23px;">In 2011, the junta that had ruled the country for over two decades undertook vast reforms. The 2008 military-drafted Constitution remained, and the new president, Thein Sein, was a high-ranking general. But the new government formally became civilian, and the opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was allowed to participate in politics again: Her National League for Democracy (N.L.D.) ran in the April 2012 by-elections. Though that helped legitimize the new government, it also gave the opposition a place in Parliament, and it suggested that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi would eventually be permitted to run for president.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Today, that tacit understanding looks like it was a form of cooptation. Since the defeat of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (U.S.D.P.) at the 2012 polls — the N.L.D. won 43 of the 44 seats it contested — both the Thein Sein administration and the military have been anxious not to lose any more ground.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Notably, the government has been resisting calls to amend the 2008 Constitution. One controversial clause bars any citizen of Myanmar with a foreign spouse or foreign children, like Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, from running for president. Another set of provisions limits the rights of ethnic minorities. There has been little progress on changing those clauses partly because of various divisions within the establishment: both between military hard-liners and self-styled democratic reformists, and among the reformists.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">For a time, the Thein Sein administration seemed to be pushing hard to conclude a nationwide cease-fire accord with armed ethnic groups, which have waged war against the central government for over six decades, demanding equal rights and a federal union. A successful deal would perk up the ruling party ahead of the election. Failing that, the effort itself might earn the government some credit, while deflating the opposition’s calls for extensive reform.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Some major ethnic armed groups and the government agreed on a draft text on March 31, but the deal has yet to be signed. While the United Nationalities Federal Council, an alliance of ethnic groups, has been insisting that all armed groups should be involved, the military has refused to deal with the Kokang, whose insurgents have been fighting it especially hard.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Yet even as the military scuttled the Thein Sein administration’s efforts on the cease-fire accord, its representatives in Parliament urgently endorsed a motion to pass new laws guaranteeing “power-sharing, resource-sharing and tax-sharing” rights for ethnic minority states and self-administered areas. This was a gambit by the generals to win over the ethnic political parties in Parliament, as well as score points for getting something done when the government is stumbling.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">The so-called reformists are also divided. The House speaker, Thura Shwe Mann — the third most-powerful general in the junta, who had expected to become president in 2011 — has mobilized Parliament to pressure Thein Sein into holding multiparty talks on constitutional reform; this, in order both to assert himself and make an overture to Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. A meeting was held last month — with Thein Sein, Thura Shwe Mann, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and the army chief, among others — but no substantive progress was made, only underscoring the various splits within the establishment.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Even if an elite consensus could be struck, it would be exceedingly difficult to modify the Constitution in time for the election, at least if it is to be held in November, as currently planned. Amending the text’s most significant provisions, including those on the eligibility of presidential candidates, requires both over a 75 percent majority in Parliament and a simple majority in a national referendum.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">That is a very high bar to pass at any time, but it would be a logistical nightmare to organize a national plebiscite during the monsoon season, when even the main roads in Myanmar’s major cities get flooded. And since the Constitution allots 25 percent of the seats in Parliament to the military, the generals in effect have veto power over any constitutional reform. The army chief has said that the Constitution, which grants the military vast prerogatives, should not be amended so long as it guarantees the country’s stability.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Sources close to the military have told me that they think the Constitution will not be amended before the election, and that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi stands virtually no chance of running for the presidency this time. Yet it is still unclear who else the N.L.D. may field as its presidential candidate: Thanks partly to Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s secretive, personality-driven style, there are no designated second-line leaders within the party.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Still, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has a decisive role to play in the election. Even if she does not run for president, the N.L.D. is expected to win a majority in Parliament, meaning that she could become House speaker, a powerful position with control over the legislature’s agenda and procedures. And because of infighting on the establishment side, she may wind up being the election’s kingmaker.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Under Myanmar’s nominally parliamentary system, the president is not directly elected by the people, but through a complicated parliamentary procedure: After the popular vote, incoming members of Parliament elect the president by a simple majority from among three vice-presidential candidates, two of them nominated by each of the houses of Parliament, and the third by military representatives.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Since the ruling U.S.D.P. is unlikely to win a majority in either house, both Thein Sein and Thura Shwe Mann would need the military’s endorsement to become president. But Thein Sein, once the protégé of the former dictator Than Shwe, has been falling out of favor: The generals think he kowtows to the West and is too soft on ethnic armed groups. And they are wary of Thura Shwe Mann, whom they suspect of seeking rapprochement with the opposition.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Some N.L.D. insiders have indeed suggested that Ms. Aung Sang Suu Kyi might endorse Thura Shwe Mann for president over someone from her own party. They say she may be hoping that once in power Thura Shwe Mann would then push through the reforms needed to eventually make her eligible for the presidency — a questionable proposition, and reminiscent of her tacit understanding with Thein Sein, which is the main cause of the current deadlock.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">All this uncertainty might seem like good reason to postpone the election: Better that than risk seeing the military refuse to honor the results or a full-on confrontation over reform. But a delay is also an unattractive option for the generals, as it would hurt their standing, especially internationally.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">This quandary only goes to show that it isn’t the next election that should be considered a measure of Myanmar’s progress toward democratization. Rather, the real test is whether the country’s political elites can finally come to a viable power-sharing agreement. Short of such a deal, leadership vacuums on all sides will threaten the country’s stability even if the election takes place.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">Min Zin is a contributor to Foreign Policy’s blog Democracy Lab, and serves as a Myanmar expert for think tanks and NGOs like Freedom House.</span></span></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-21581585719205085342015-05-15T11:51:00.000-07:002015-05-15T11:52:07.069-07:00Burma Takes a Big Step Backwards<h1 class="post-title" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(167, 169, 171); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; font-family: Tiempos, georgia, serif; font-size: 3.875rem; line-height: 3.875rem; margin: 0.65rem 0px 0px; padding: 1rem 0px 0.5rem; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="color: #990000;">Burma Takes a Big Step Backwards</span></h1>
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<span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;">Earlier this week, the Burmese authorities staged a violent </span><a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/photo/scenes-of-indiscriminate-violence-in-letpadan-as-police-attack-ambulance-workers-students-reporter.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-size: 17px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">crackdown</a><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;">on unarmed student protesters and their supporters,</span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/students-police-scuffle-myanmar-protest-tensions-boil-071950911.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-size: 17px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">arresting</a><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;">at least 127 and seriously injuring dozens of others. The latest violence took place after a weeklong standoff between students and police in the town of Letpadan, 90 miles north of Rangoon, Burma’s largest city. It was the second such incident within the space of just a few days. On March 5, pro-government plainclothes thugs</span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/plainclothes-vigilantes-make-a-comeback-in-rangoon.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-size: 17px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">charged</a><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;">protesters in Rangoon itself. Burmese civil society groups and international watchdogs are</span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><a href="https://www.dvb.no/news/international-voices-decry-police-crackdown-on-students-burma-myanmar/49066" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-size: 17px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">decrying</a><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;">the violence. The U.S. State Department has also</span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><a href="http://time.com/3740141/burma-crackdown-student-protests-letpadan/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-size: 17px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">condemned</a><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;"> </span><span style="font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 2.05rem;">the crackdown.</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 2.05rem;">Since January, thousands of students, including high schoolers, have </span><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/a-new-generation-takes-to-the-streets-in-burma/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">been marching</a><span style="line-height: 2.05rem;"> — in some cases for hundreds of miles — from major provincial cities to Rangoon. They’re doing so as part of a protest against Burma’s new national education law, which they believe is explicitly designed to curb academic freedom. After a series of talks with student representatives, the government agreed to amend the controversial law, and a special parliamentary committee is now debating the proposed changes. But the students pulled out of the discussions last week in response to a police blockade of their main protest group in Letpadan. Then the government attacked. In a country where students have played a crucial role in advancing political change — from the independence movement in the early twentieth century to the democracy movement of the late 1980s — the latest brutal crackdown does not bode well for Burma’s political transition.</span></div>
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In the past, the regime has successfully combined harsh violent reactions to dissent with political ploys to weaken the opposition, confuse the public, and defuse international pressure. Perhaps the regime is now studying this page of their old playbook and considering whether to apply it again. If it does, we can expect several rounds of talks between President Thein Sein (or Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing) and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Though such talks are not likely to facilitate a political breakthrough, they could eclipse the headlines of students being beaten and jailed.</div>
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Nonetheless, if previous patterns are any indication, Aung San Suu Kyi, head of the National League for Democracy (NLD), will probably swallow the bait again and seize the opportunity to downplay the student movement while advancing her political agenda. “The NLD never supports the use of violence,” she said when asked to comment on the latest violence. “There is nothing special we have to say. The rule of law is for everyone.” Later the NLD <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/11/burmese-activists-in-court-after-violent-crackdown-on-student-protests" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">joined</a> the general chorus of condemnation, stating that the government’s harsh action against the protestors was “not appropriate in a civilized society.” In fact, both the government and the Suu Kyi-led mainstream opposition view the student protests as an unwelcome challenge.</div>
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For the government, the student reform campaign is a conspiracy by radical veteran communists seeking to unseat the regime through confrontation. Late last month, the Ministry of Education circulated a confidential memo among senior university administrators alleging that the education bill the student protesters propose is nothing more than a communist attempt to overthrow “the current democratic system of governance.” For her part, Suu Kyi views the protests as a distraction from her own focus on changing the current military-authored constitution, which contains a number of provisions specifically aimed at preventing her from becoming president. Only by getting rid of these provisions can she hope to be elected to the country’s highest office. In recent speeches and interviews, the Lady has cautioned the students against exerting pressure on parliament about the education bill, while urging the public not to lose sight of the priority of constitutional reform.</div>
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It is true that some student leaders hold increasingly strong views and employ increasingly radical tactics. But this is because they have noted the obstructionism, the broken promises, and the delaying tactics of the government since it tabled the education bill early last year. It is true that some veteran activists, who the government alleges are communists, aim to exploit the students for broader purposes (such as regime change). Nonetheless, most student activists remain focused on the goal of educational reform. More importantly, the conspiracy theories fail to address the people’s genuine grievances or offer any viable solutions.</div>
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It’s also true that the protests have become a distraction, at least temporarily, from much-needed constitutional reform. But this has far less to do with the students’ demands than with the government’s brutal crackdown and the opposition’s conspicuous inaction. The student movement has gained momentum because the mainstream opposition (above all the NLD) has failed to speak up about injustices ranging from land grabs to ethnic conflict, labor unrest, and, of course, educational reform. It is also possible that the opposition feels intimidated because the student protests <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/a-new-generation-takes-to-the-streets-in-burma/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">mark</a> the first national grassroots movement in 25 years which stands outside its purview.</div>
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“The students are the winners” has now become a major slogan on Burmese social media. But the reality is rather more complicated. Ironically, the first winner will probably be Aung San Suu Kyi and her party. Because this latest crackdown calls to mind the military’s past brutalities, people are more likely to cast protest votes against the military-backed ruling party in the next general elections scheduled for later this year. This will give an added boost to the NLD, which already enjoys strong public support.</div>
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If more urban protests ensue, however, and if instability intensifies as a result of the military’s latest campaigns against rebellious ethnic regions, the generals could step in to declare a state of emergency and postpone the general elections. The constitution <a href="http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/01/the-tatmadaws-new-position-in-myanmar-politics/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">allows</a> the armed forces to sideline parliament and rule the country directly when a state of emergency is declared. The recent military takeovers in Egypt and Thailand are attractive models to Burma’s generals. After the Thai coup, Burmese army chief Min Aung Hlaing visited Bangkok as the first leader from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to meet with the military junta. The Burmese general made a point of <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/the-new-thailand-myanmar-axis/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">praising</a> his Thai counterparts for “doing the right thing.”</div>
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Senior Burmese officials have told me in private that there are regular high-level exchanges between two armies. Burmese generals are keen to learn how the Thais managed to pacify their notoriously fractious country, while the Thai army admires Burmese constitution that enshrines the army’s leading role in politics. The officials I interviewed last November told me that senior Burmese officers have also been carefully studying the situation in Egypt with interest as well. One thing’s for sure: In this case, the army will be the real winner.</div>
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It’s highly unlikely that the victims of this week’s violence will ever see the perpetrators — above all the minister of internal affairs — brought to account. As usual, the government will set up investigative commissions run by its own officials, but there will be little in the way of substantive follow-up. Senior spokesmen have repeatedly <a href="http://burmese.voanews.com/content/u-ye-htut-response/2674452.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">asserted</a> that what happened in Rangoon and in Letpadan was in accordance with the law. Though the government has now <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/handful-of-students-released-from-tharyarwaddy-prison.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">released</a> 17 of the detained students, the Ministry of Home Affairs announced that any unlawful activity or “attempts to destabilize the country” will be charged and punished. Failing effective disciplinary action by the executive branch of government, it will be left up to parliament, which was quick to unanimously <a href="https://www.dvb.no/news/lower-house-condemns-us-blacklist-burma-myanmar/45746" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">condemn</a> the United States for sanctioning a notorious regime figure, to demand an accounting. Will its members live up to their responsibilities? Will the country’s unreformed judiciary allow attempts by victims to sue their abusers? The answers to these questions will show whether Burma’s embattled political transition has any life left in it at all.</div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-33805161550982616072015-03-12T11:57:00.000-07:002015-03-12T11:57:05.017-07:00A New Generation Takes to the Streets in Burma<h2>
<span style="color: #cc0000;">A New Generation Takes to the Streets in Burma</span></h2>
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<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>BY MIN ZINFEBRUARY 9, 2015</b></span></div>
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The fighting peacock rides again. That long-standing symbol of the Burmese student movement, an emblem of resistance to authoritarian rule, once again adorns countless bright red flags held aloft by student activists. Thousands of the students, including high schoolers, are now <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/govt-postpones-education-talks-students-continue-march-rangoon.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">marching</a> — in some cases for hundreds of miles — from several major provincial cities to Rangoon. They’re protesting against the country’s National Education Law, which was approved by parliament in September 2014 despite <a href="http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/in-depth/12359-behind-the-student-protests.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">objections</a> from student unions and expert networks. The students and their allies view the law as explicitly designed to curb academic freedom.</div>
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Students played a crucial role in the Burmese independence movement against British rule in the early twentieth century. Later, in 1988, they even succeeded in toppling the military government (though the generals soon staged a ferocious comeback that kept them in power for another quarter century after that).</div>
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For this reason, the significance of the current student campaign goes well beyond education reform. The new student protest movement marks the first national grassroots movement in 25 years that stands outside the established opposition, embodied by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which has been effectively co-opted by the system. While the frustration with the dismal state of Burma’s education system is real enough, the student protests are also reflecting a deeper dissatisfaction with the halting pace of the broader reform process. For this reason it’s quite possible that this new wave of student activism may also signal a major generational shift within the opposition.</div>
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The marchers certainly enjoy broad support. Local residents <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/burma-students-reject-govt-warning-stop-protests.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">welcome</a> the students when they pass through town, often giving them food. Monasteries provide the students with shelter at night. Local physicians give free medical treatment to marchers who need it, and well-known social service groups in Rangoon, such as the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=229176432913" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Free Funeral Service Society</a>, have sent ambulances and medical supplies. Teachers living in cities along the route of the march have also embraced the students. In some cases they even give the marchers extra lessons to make up for the work they’ve missed.</div>
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The country’s education system, one of the best in the region until the military seized power in 1962, has crumbled under decades of military rule, especially in the aftermath of the student-led pro-democracy in 1988, which was subsequently crushed by the military leaders.</div>
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In the period that followed, the military responded to persistent student activism by shutting down many civilian universities, in some cases reopening them in locations far from urban centers to prevent students from staging protests that might gain sympathy among the general public. Until 2011, when the government began its cautious opening of the political system, a mere 1.2 percent of the national budget went to education while defense spending soared to at least 23 percent. That latter figure even excludes a number of special funds drawn from a range of military-backed businesses and other unknown sources. (The junta did not release the budget to public scrutiny for a number of years.)</div>
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The current government has pledged to raise the amount spent on education to 5.9 percent of the $19 billion total national budget for fiscal year 2014-15, while reducing the amount spent on defense to 12-13 percent. Yet despite the promises, the current budget allocates <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/burma-defense-ministry-puts-forward-budget-request.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">some $2.4 billion</a> for defense versus <a href="https://www.dvb.no/news/burma-budgets-us110-million-for-education-burma-myanmar/44595" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">a mere $110 million</a> for education. While generations of civilians suffered under what is now one of the worst education systems in the world, the military and their cronies sent their children to private schools at home and top universities in the region. The ethnic minority populations were especially disadvantaged, since curricula tend to favor the majority Burman ethnicity, in part by prohibiting instruction in minority languages.</div>
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According to student leaders and the National Network for Education Reform (NNER), a network formed in 2012 with representatives from around 200 civil society organizations, religious groups, education professionals and experts, the government’s new education law fails to address fundamental problems. Student unions and NNER have issued a list of <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/protests-continue-students-govt-discuss-education-reform.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">11 demands</a> to lawmakers, calling on them to amend the law to decentralize control, allow the formation of student and teacher unions, reintegrate students who left school for political reasons, and increase educational spending to 20 percent of the national budget. In November, student unions issued a 60-day deadline for the parliament to negotiate amendments of the law. The current protests began when the deadline passed.</div>
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Students are calling for a four-way negotiating process, to include student representatives, the NNER, the government, and the parliament. As the student marchers gained momentum, Minister of the President’s Office Aung Min announced the start of a national dialogue with the students on Feb. 1. The government, however, <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/govt-postpones-talks-education-reform.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">postponed</a> the second meeting until after Feb. 12, and <a href="http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/government-postpones-student-talks-02032015171823.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">refused</a> to grant equal rights to student representatives. The government then muddied the waters by releasing a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/myanmar-government-says-student-protest-threatens-stability/2015/02/05/d66e04da-ad4d-11e4-8876-460b1144cbc1_story.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">statement</a> accusing student protestors of being manipulated by political groups aiming to destabilize the country. This is just the same sort of threat that previous military regimes made before launching crackdowns on protests. Students <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/myanmar-government-says-student-protest-threatens-stability-154056688.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">rejected</a> the threat and have continued their marches to Rangoon amid increasing public support.</div>
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So what is the role of mainstream opposition groups in this student struggle? Local veteran student activists and members of the opposition party have been crucial in supporting the marchers. But the leadership seems to have a different view. Though the NLD initially opposed the bill, it has remained silent about the law since its passage. When education expert Dr. Thein Lwin, a temporary member of the NLD central executive committee, attended the national dialogue with the students in his capacity as an NNER member, the NLD issued a <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/nld-distances-leading-voice-education.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">statement</a> warning that it could take legal action against him for violating party discipline.</div>
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Aung San Suu Kyi <a href="http://www.mizzima.com/mizzima-news/myanmar/item/17456-nld-committee-member-must-resign-or-cease-education-activism-says-suu-kyi" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">declared</a> that Thein Lwin must resign from the party’s central executive committee of the party if he wishes to continue his work on behalf of the NNER. The party then removed him from his position on Feb. 9. Many <a href="http://asiancorrespondent.com/130386/has-aung-san-suu-kyi-turned-her-back-on-burmas-student-protesters/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">criticized</a> the party’s handling of Thein Lwin, a British-educated reformer who is one of the very few technocrats in the NLD with exposure to western educational systems. The party runs the risk of playing into the hands of the government, which appears to be getting tougher on the student movement.</div>
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Two possible scenarios present themselves. In the short term, the student movement could be weakened by the lack of support from the NLD, which has declined to make any statements warning the government against a crackdown on the protesters. This is particularly worrisome in light of the government’s increasing intolerance of dissent. The authorities could seize upon this by making some sort of partial concession to the students’ demands in order to weaken their movement’s momentum, by using force to disperse the student marchers on their way to Rangoon, or by deploying religious extremists to stage parallel protests (for example about the hot-button issue of <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/week-protests-planned-suffrage-white-card-holders.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">extending voting rights</a> to the Burmese Muslims known as Rohingya) to divert attention from the reform movement and to provoke violent and chaotic situation. The government could, of course, even resort to all of these tactics at once. Under these circumstances, the student marchers will have no one to rely on but the international community should the need arise to pressure the government into refraining from violence against the protesters.</div>
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Over the longer term, meanwhile, it’s entirely possible that this movement could produce a new generation of Burmese activist leaders — like those who emerged from the student unions during the Independence Movement in the late 1930s. (Intriguingly, those student leaders also arose after the mainstream opposition, consisting of leading Burmese nationalists of the 1920s, had been co-opted by the British colonialists – a situation that’s potentially reminiscent of the current one.) That new generation of student leaders included independence hero Aung San, who once chaired the student union and remains the model for student activists today. (He, of course, is the father of Aung San Suu Kyi.)</div>
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Many Burmese worry that the current mainstream opposition, represented mainly by the NLD, is failing to capture broader public discontent. If that continues, these flag-waving students could come to represent the future of the opposition sooner than expected. Burma has been there before.</div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-8110776577991418582014-12-04T11:19:00.000-08:002014-12-04T11:19:22.371-08:00Can Burma's Civil Society Find Its Voice Again?<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>Can Burma's Civil Society Find Its Voice Again?</b></span><br />
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<b style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN NOVEMBER 26, 2014</span></b><br />
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The Burmese military is staging a comeback. Since the government launched its tentative liberalization process four years ago, the armed forces, the notorious Tatmadaw, have taken a backseat. Though it has members in key roles in all government institutions, it has refrained from fully exercising its coercive and all-encompassing constitutional prerogatives. But now the generals are signaling that they're no longer willing to keep a low profile, and instead hope to exercise the full extent of their power in the country's ethnic regions and in its parliament, in which 25 percent of the seats are reserved for military representatives. The army's Nov. 19 <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-myanmar-kachin-casualties-idUSKCN0J404020141120" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">attack</a> on a training facility of the Kachin ethnic rebel group -- which killed 23 cadets -- is a clear case in point. (In the photo above, an activist lights candles at a memorial to the attack's victims on Nov. 24.) At a moment when many Burmese are expressing growing dissatisfaction about the undemocratic nature of the military-imposed constitution, the generals are determined to show that they won't brook any further challenges to their authority. If things continue as they are, it's only a matter of time until the Tatmadaw decides to suppress public protests. The question thus becomes whether Burmese civil society is capable of pushing back.</div>
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Unfortunately, Burmese civil society is in limbo. The country's diverse constellation of student unions, human rights organizations, and other citizen-led groups were once known for their resilience in the face of oppression and for their creative ability to connect with each other, with their fellows in exile, and with the international community. These groups rallied behind democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and her drive for national reconciliation. Her stunning return to active political life in 2012 with a sweeping electoral victory was possible in part due to the support she received from the grassroots. And earlier this year, Aung San Suu Kyi <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/05/the_lady_rallies_the_masses_once_again" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">called</a> on civil society groups to rally behind her during her constitutional reform campaign -- which eventually <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/05/the_lady_rallies_the_masses_once_again" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">lost steam</a> with its ambiguous endgame, weak credibility, and the changing domestic and international context.</div>
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Since the Lady's political return, the groups that once rallied behind her have found themselves marginalized and unable to play a meaningful role in the country's ongoing political transition, which has assumed a marked top-down nature. Burmese civil society appears to have lost its voice.</div>
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There are three cases that clearly demonstrate this demobilization. The first was in November 2012, when Aung San Suu Kyi chaired a parliamentary inquiry into police violence against a protesters' camp outside a mining project in northwestern Burma. She failed to hold any officials accountable for that bloody crackdown. Instead, she allowed the project to continue, triggering <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/mining/activists-locals-reject-letpadaung-inquiry.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">intense protests</a> from locals and victims. She has <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/02/what_aung_san_suu_kyi_didn_t_say_during_her_visit_to_washington" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">refused to criticize</a> the government's renewal of the war in the Kachin region in 2011, which has led to massive human rights abuses, including the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/burmas-aung-san-suu-kyi-a-human-rights-icon-is-criticized-on-anti-muslim-violence/2013/12/23/c7acb0f4-633e-11e3-a373-0f9f2d1c2b61_story.html" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">rape of displaced Kachin women</a>. The Lady's silence on this matter has alienated her Kachin supporters. Perhaps best known to the international community is Aung San Suu Kyi's silence about rampant <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/15/world/asia/myanmar-aung-san-suu-kyi-rohingya-disappointment/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">anti-Muslim violence</a> which first took place in the west and has since spread throughout the country. </div>
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In all of these cases, Burma's civil society groups looked to the Lady -- their one-time icon and hero -- for ideological, political, and strategic guidance. Unfortunately, she failed them. Perhaps naïvely, she put her trust in the ruling elites and failed to sustain her grassroots bases either at home or abroad. As a result, the partial integration of the opposition into mainstream politics has remained largely symbolic. Civil society groups work hard and make headway on their own individual projects, but few feel that they have been able to make a difference in the country's overall direction.</div>
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It wasn't always this way. Burma's civil society organizations were once known for their tenacity and effectiveness. After the military launched a massive crackdown on the democracy movement in 1988, large numbers of these groups were forced into clandestine politics. With basic rights such as freedom of speech and freedom of assembly severely curtailed, they continued to operate underground. They were often able to combine their covert activity with whatever mainstream political participation was allowed. This led to some impressive results. </div>
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A 2007 protest led by Buddhist monks soon attracted youth groups and many other formerly clandestine organizations, soon evolving into a full-scale uprising known as the "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffron_Revolution" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Saffron Revolution</a>." Though suffering a harsh government crackdown, these groups did not wither away. When the devastating Cyclone Nargis hit Burma in 2008, costing over 130,000 lives in the delta region, civic groups made an indispensable comeback to deliver humanitarian support to disaster victims. New volunteer groups proliferated. It was civil society that made up for the military state's <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/feb/27/regime-blocked-aid-to-burma-cyclone-victims" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">criminal negligence</a> toward its own citizens in the aftermath of the cyclone. Despite harassment and repression, civil society proved its resilience and effectiveness in assisting the survivors. </div>
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Moreover, civil society groups joined together to protest against the construction of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myitsone_Dam" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Myitsone Dam</a>, a multibillion-dollar Chinese investment that would dam the Irrawaddy River at eight locations with grave environmental and cultural consequences. The new government's partial concession in September 2011, when it agreed to suspend construction of the dam, illustrated the strength of Burmese civil society.</div>
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Ironically, then, Burmese civil society -- sidelined and demoralized during a relatively open period -- was once capable of great things, even during the harshest periods of military rule. Will it find its voice in the new Burma?</div>
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It's possible that the recent resurgence of the armed forces will prompt civil society groups to regain their strategic focus and their willingness to coordinate their actions. If the military decides once again to project its power on the streets by intimidating or attacking protestors, that might force activists to reconsolidate their defensive capabilities and reclaim ownership of Burma's regime-driven political transition. If not, civil society can expect to remain on the sidelines for years to come.</div>
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<i style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">here</a></i>.</div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: medium;"><span style="line-height: 20px;"><b>Return of the Myanmar Military?</b></span></span></div>
<b style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: start;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b><span style="background-color: #c0a154; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: start;"></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: start;"><b>By MIN ZIN </b></span><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: start;" /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: start;"><b>NOV 17, 2014</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem; text-align: left;">YANGON, Myanmar — During his visit to Myanmar last week, President Obama sounded a word of caution, saying the process of reform was “</span><a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/myanmar-reforms-are-no-means-complete-or-irreversible-obama-20141114" style="color: #326891; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem; text-align: left;">by no means complete or irreversible</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem; text-align: left;">.” His tone was decidedly less enthusiastic than during his previous visit, in 2012. Back then, the recent inauguration of the pseudo-civilian government of President Thein Sein seemed to signal the advent of liberalization after almost half a century of military rule. Many political dissidents were then released from jail or house arrest, notably the democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem; text-align: left;">But now progress has stalled on almost all major issues: power sharing with the opposition, peace talks with armed ethnic groups, Buddhist-Muslim relations, minority rights, media freedom. Progress has stalled because the military is tightening its grip once again.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem; text-align: left;">The Tatmadaw, as the armed forces are called, has grown increasingly assertive in recent months, even as the country prepares for a historic general election next year, the first since the military junta’s formal dissolution in 2011. Not only is the Tatmadaw increasingly exercising the expansive prerogatives it gave itself in the 2008 Constitution; it is trying to extend its powers further.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">The recent killing of the freelance journalist Par Gyi, a former bodyguard of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, is just one glaring example. Mr. </span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/us-myanmar-journalist-idUSKBN0IH1MD20141028" style="color: #326891; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">Par Gyi</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">was allegedly shot while in army custody in early October. At first the army tried to hide his death, only to claim three weeks after it occurred that he was shot by soldiers while trying to escape. After the authorities</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;"> </span><a href="http://english.dvb.no/news/five-gunshot-wounds-found-on-par-gyis-body-burma-myanmar/45695" style="color: #326891; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">exhumed</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">Mr. Par Gyi, images of his mutilated body circulated on Facebook and outraged the general public, confirming suspicions that he had been tortured.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">But the episode seems only to have revived the military’s siege mentality. The army is unlikely to allow any civilian court to look into the case; it will rather prosecute its own commanders if necessary to protect the institution’s credibility overall. And</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;"> </span><a href="http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs5/Myanmar_Constitution-2008-en.pdf" style="color: #326891; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">under the 2008 Constitution</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">, “in the adjudication of military justice,” the decision of the commander in chief is final.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">Submitting to civilian oversight would be risky. A recent</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;"> </span><a href="http://hrp.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2014.11.05-IHRC-Legal-Memorandum.pdf" style="color: #326891; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">report by Harvard Law School</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">names three senior generals in connection with crimes against humanity and war crimes suffered by ethnic Karen between 2005 and 2008. Transitional justice is a threat to the army’s unity, and in the past would have been just the kind of threat to justify a coup. The issue today isn’t so much whether the military would consider a takeover — times have changed — but rather how far it will go to protect its narrow interests in the face of public opposition, just a year before a general election.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">Another gauge of its resolve is constitutional reform. Throughout 2013, a special committee appointed by Parliament solicited views from the public about whether, and how, the 2008 Constitution might be improved. In a separate petition, the main opposition party gathered five million signatures from people asking for a relaxation of the amendment clause. Modifying major provisions of the Constitution, including the amendment clause itself, requires a 75 percent majority in Parliament — which gives the military veto power since by law it holds 25 percent of parliamentary seats — and then a majority of votes in a national referendum. This exceedingly high threshold blocks any fundamental constitutional reform, including of the provision prohibiting Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s candidacy for the presidency and of clauses governing taxation and the appointment of provincial authorities in ethnic areas.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">Yet during debates in Parliament last week, the military’s representatives declared that the </span><a href="http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Burmese-military-wants-to-retain-veto-power-of-constitutional-reforms-32501.html" style="color: #326891; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">amendment clause should be maintained</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">. The Tatmadaw may never have considered allowing Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi to run for president. For a time, however, it did seem to want to increase the autonomy of ethnic regions, if only to curry support among ethnic political parties and armed groups. Its recent inflexibility is a notable change, and a sign of its growing insecurity. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, times, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23px;">This is especially ominous because the military’s hardening risks causing friction with the Thein Sein government: Last December, the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party, an offshoot of the old military junta, had granted its conditional approval for amending the Constitution’s amendment clause.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">In the initial phase of liberalization, the military tended to follow Mr. Thein Sein’s reform initiatives. The generals rarely defied the political agenda of the president, himself a career army bureaucrat, except to defend their economic and tactical interests. But according to several senior aides to Mr. Thein Sein, relations between the president and the commander in chief, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, are increasingly out of sync. Several sources close to both men told me that General Min Aung Hlaing’s tougher tactics of late were reminiscent of the style of Senior Gen. Than Shwe, Myanmar’s military leader from 1992 to 2011, suggesting that General Than Shwe may still be pulling the strings behind the scenes.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">Lately, the military leadership has called for expanding the role of the National Defense and Security Council, a military-dominated 11-member body that holds wide-ranging powers, including the right to take over from the civilian government in a state of emergency. During the parliamentary debates last week, military representatives argued that the N.D.S.C. should be able to dissolve Parliament if one-third of the seats become vacant.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;">Were this proposal an isolated case, it might simply be a maneuver by the military to increase its leverage. But like one of several such moves recently, it is evidence that the generals are hardening their stance with little regard for international opinion, the will of the voters, or even relations with Mr. Thein Sein. After a brief moment of promise, the new Myanmar is increasingly starting to look like the old.</span></div>
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<em style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.4375rem;"><em>Min Zin </em>is a contributor to Foreign Policy’s blog Democracy Lab, and serves as a Myanmar expert for think tanks and NGOs like Freedom House.</em></div>
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<span style="color: #999999; font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.6875rem; line-height: 0.9375rem;">A version of this op-ed appears in print on November 18, 2014, in The International New York Times. </span><span class="story-footer-links" style="color: #999999; display: inline-block; font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.6875rem; line-height: 0.9375rem;"><a href="https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?contentID=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2014%2F11%2F18%2Fopinion%2Freturn-of-the-myanmar-military.html&publisherName=The+New+York+Times&publication=nytimes.com&token=&orderBeanReset=true&postType=&wordCount=975&title=Return+of+the+Myanmar+Military%3F&publicationDate=November+17%2C+2014&author=By%20Min%20Zin" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Order Reprints</a><span class="pipe" style="color: #cccccc; margin: 0px 3px;">|</span> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/todayspaper/index.html" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Today's Paper</a><span class="pipe" style="color: #cccccc; margin: 0px 3px;">|</span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp839RF.html?campaignId=48JQY" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Subscribe</a></span></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-6909184571079542762014-06-09T13:14:00.000-07:002014-06-09T13:23:33.867-07:00<br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">The Opinion Pages | OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">The People vs. The Monks</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;"><b>By MIN ZIN </b></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;"><b>JUNE 6, 2014</b></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">One of the darkest aspects of <a class="meta-loc" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/myanmar/index.html?inline=nyt-geo" style="color: #326891; text-decoration: underline;" title="More news and information about Myanmar.">Myanmar</a>’s political transition is a surge in religious intolerance, especially toward Muslims. Liberalization has lifted the lid on many pent-up grievances, and old-timers in the government and the monkhood are stoking these sentiments.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Last week the government proposed a law that would require anyone who wants to change religion to first seek permission from local authorities; it would also penalize proselytizing through “improper influence and persuasion.” This is one of four bills the government has drafted at the instigation of a powerful group of radical Buddhist monks called Mabatha, backed by a petition with 1.3 million signatures. The other three bills contemplate restricting interfaith marriage, birth rates and polygamy. Though phrased broadly, all are a veiled attack on Myanmar’s religious minorities, especially its 2.2 million Muslims.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">A coalition of almost 100 civil society groups, led by well-known women activists and ethnic minority leaders, immediately protested the president’s endorsement of the discriminatory laws. The Mabatha denounced them as “traitors,” but that only prompted more civil society groups to oppose the bills. Facebook lit up with posts and comments like, “Count me in; I am a traitor, too.” The publication The Voice criticized “crony monks” for trying to advance the government’s authoritarian agenda.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #999999; font-family: nyt-cheltenham-sh, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; line-height: 16px;"> Mitch Blunt, the illustrator</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">This reaction is unprecedented. Myanmar’s Buddhist order is arguably one of the clergies </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">in the world that commands most deference from its followers, and never before have so </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">many lay Buddhists pushed back against the monks for political reasons. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Buddhist sects have had disputes among themselves about the tenets of monastic discipline: Should a monk’s robe cover both shoulders or just the left? And there have long been conflicts between the order and the state. Many monks opposed British colonial rule, with some joining the armed struggle against it, and from the 1980s through the late 2000s, monks rallied students to form the vanguard of the pro-democracy movement.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Intellectuals have sometimes criticized monks, but typically it was for falling short of their own rules, not for political reasons. We were taught to think of any corrupt monks as deviant, keeping intact our faith in the virtue of the robe and the wisdom of the Buddha.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">But now a gap is growing between a significant segment of the monkhood and a significant segment of society over the issue of religious radicalism.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Buddhist nationalism took a turn for the extreme in mid-2012, when riots broke out between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in the western state of Rakhine, killing 300 people and displacing about 140,000, mostly Muslims. (The government refuses to acknowledge the Rohingyas as a distinct ethnic group, and many people in Myanmar consider them to be intruders from neighboring Bangladesh.) When the violence spread to other parts of the country and to non-Rohingya Muslims, who were thought to be better integrated, it seemed that natural bigotry was being manipulated.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Two radical religious groups, Mabatha and the 969 Movement, have emerged since the political transition in 2011. Like Mabatha, the 969 Movement — named after the nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of his teaching and the nine qualities of monastic community — wants to ensure that Myanmar remains a majority-Burman and majority-Buddhist state. It is led by the firebrand ultranationalist Ashin Wirathu.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Mabatha and the 969 Movement have run a broad anti-Muslim campaign, from organizing economic boycotts against Muslim businesses to, some charge, inciting pogroms. During a visit by a delegation from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation last year, monks marched through Yangon with banners calling Islam “a faith of animals with uncontrollable birthrates.” Other monks have even been accused of instigating killings early last year in the town of Meiktila, in central Myanmar, where Buddhist mobs destroyed Muslim neighborhoods, killing at least 44 people, including 20 students and several teachers at an Islamic school.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">These extremist monks are proving to be valuable political allies for the ex-military leaders of the pseudo-civilian government. Ashin Wirathu’s camp criticizes the opposition leader <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/daw_aung_san_suu_kyi/index.html?inline=nyt-per" style="color: #326891; text-decoration: underline;" title="More articles about Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.">Daw Aung San Suu Kyi</a> for being too weak in her defense of nationalism and Buddhism. (The other side criticizes her for being too weak in her defense of minority rights.) The radical monks oppose amending the current military-drafted Constitution to let Myanmar nationals with a foreign spouse or children run for the presidency, which would open the way for Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi in the 2015 election. Meanwhile, some monks are pushing to obtain the right to vote, which the Constitution also bans.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">But this rise in religious radicalism has created a countermovement bringing together over one hundred civil-society actors, including the pro-democracy 88 Generation Students Group; popular monks like Metta Shin U Zawana; Muslim and Christian groups; ethnic minorities; associations of intellectuals like PEN Myanmar; much of the mainstream media; and young bloggers like Nay Phone Latt. Together they have launched an anti-hate speech campaign, released official statements of protest, petitioned the legislature and lobbied the international community to condemn discrimination in Myanmar.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Their approach has a distinctly Burmese feel. They are rejecting extremism without entirely embracing Western values. Wholesale secularism hardly features in their calls; religiosity and spirituality are still prevalent in Myanmar. But local prejudice does feature: Some leaders of the 88 Generation Students Group also refuse to acknowledge the Rohingyas as a distinct ethnic group.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">Critics of Mabatha and the 969 Movement tend to couch their objections without reference to human rights. Instead they challenge the radical monks for staying silent about deepening poverty throughout the country and, say, the crackdown in late 2012 on Buddhist monks protesting a Chinese copper mine. In other words, they are mostly criticizing the extremist monks for doing the ex-military’s bidding.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;">The unprecedented chasm between the monkhood and the people is for now a source of tension and turmoil. But it augurs well for the country’s political and social development in the long term. The advent of a countermovement to Buddhist extremism suggests that the people of Myanmar are emancipating from traditional elites and taking a major stride toward modernity and democracy.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 23px;"><em><em>Min Zin </em>is a contributor to Foreign Policy’s blog Democracy Lab and serves as a Myanmar expert for think tanks and NGOs like Freedom House.</em></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #999999; font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 15px;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/07/opinion/the-people-vs-the-monks.html?_r=0" target="_blank">The People vs. The Monks</a></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #999999; font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 15px;">A version of this op-ed appears in print on June 7, 2014, in The International New York Times. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: nyt-cheltenham, georgia, 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a class="visually-hidden skip-to-text-link" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/07/opinion/the-people-vs-the-monks.html?_r=0#story-continues-2" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; clip: rect(0px 0px 0px 0px); color: #326891; display: inline !important; height: 1px; margin-bottom: -1px; margin-left: -1px; margin-right: -1px; margin-top: -1px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: absolute; text-decoration: none; width: 1px;">ntinue reading the main story</a></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #999999; font-family: nyt-franklin, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 15px;"><span class="story-footer-links" style="display: inline-block;"><a href="https://s100.copyright.com/AppDispatchServlet?contentID=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2014%2F06%2F07%2Fopinion%2Fthe-people-vs-the-monks.html&publisherName=The+New+York+Times&publication=nytimes.com&token=&orderBeanReset=true&postType=&wordCount=1026&title=The+People+vs.+The+Monks&publicationDate=June+6%2C+2014&author=By%20Min%20Zin" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Order Reprints</a><span class="pipe" style="color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 3px; margin-right: 3px; margin-top: 0px;">|</span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/todayspaper/index.html" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Today's Paper</a><span class="pipe" style="color: #cccccc; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 3px; margin-right: 3px; margin-top: 0px;">|</span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/subscriptions/Multiproduct/lp5558.html?" style="color: #999999; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Subscribe</a></span></span></div>
Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-24566465343119605042014-06-05T23:00:00.000-07:002014-06-05T23:00:35.965-07:00<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"><b>The Lady Rallies the Masses Once Again</b></span><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">Aung San Suu Kyi wants to change the Burmese constitution. But will the military really go along?</span></b></h2>
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN JUNE 5, 2014</span></b><br />
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The big question in Burmese politics these days is whether the military will allow Aung San Suu Kyi to run for the presidency. The current constitution, which was drafted and passed by the old military regime, bars her from the job. Article 59F of the constitution states that any Burmese who has a foreign spouse or children who are foreign nationals can't become president or vice president. Aung San Suu Kyi's two sons (from her marriage with the deceased Oxford professor Michael Aris) have British citizenship, so she needs to change that rule before she can qualify for Burma's highest office. Burma's military rulers included that rather peculiar condition precisely in order to prevent her from taking power.</div>
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During the third week of May, Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters<a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/suu-kyi-wraps-back-back-rallies-urging-pre-2015-charter-change.html?" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">gathered</a> for two mass rallies in Rangoon and Mandalay, Burma's two biggest cities. (The demonstration in Mandalay, the most important commercial city in upper Burma, drew an estimated 25,000 supporters.) Both rallies called for amending Article 436 of the 2008 constitution, which essentially gives the military a veto over any amendments. The article stipulates that any amendments require the support of more than 75 percent of members of the parliament, where unelected military representatives control a quarter of the seats. Aung San Suu Kyi's camp have to get rid of this provision before they can amend the article that prevents her from holding the presidency.</div>
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<blockquote style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 1.875em; font-weight: 800; font: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 30px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="pull-quote" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 30px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There's no doubt that Burma's constitution is deeply flawed.</span><br />
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<span class="pull-quote" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There's no doubt that Burma's constitution is deeply flawed.</span> The excessive power that it grants the military and the obstacles it places in the way of amendment are only two of the most obvious problems. Ideally, of course, these provisions can be changed or abolished. In reality, matters are a bit more complicated. The 2008 constitution was the result of an effort to reduce the military's direct control of the state as part of the country's transition away from the previous military dictatorship. For all its flaws, the constitution has enabled the political opening that continues in Burma today.<br />
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At the rallies, Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters called for replacing the 75 percent requirement with a simple majority parliamentary vote. After spending the past two years lobbying for a constitutional amendment, the Lady (as the Burmese often refer to their revered opposition leader) has finally lost her patience with the military, which failed to respond to her request for a formal meeting with key political players, including President Thein Sein, House Speaker Shwe Mann, and Army Chief Min Aung Hlaing. Speaking to thousands of supporters at the rallies, she ultimately resorted to some highly charged, shame-and-name rhetoric: "I challenge the military..." "Soldiers must be brave enough to face reality... "The military was founded as the Burma Liberation Army, not as the Army for Repressing Burma."</div>
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The crowds were suitably fired up. They also applauded her decision to <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/nld-88-generation-target-military-veto-burma-constitutional-reform.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">team up</a> with the 88 Generation Group, the most influential activist group in Burma after Aung San Suu Kyi's own party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to organize these mass rallies and launch a nationwide campaign to petition for constitutional reform.</div>
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The question is whether this show of political influence will achieve its professed goal. The short answer is "no." </div>
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<blockquote style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 1.875em; font-weight: 800; font: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 30px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="pull-quote" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 30px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In all likelihood, the campaign will end up serving merely as part of the broader political effort to garner support for Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, ahead of the 2015 elections.</span><br />
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<a class="icons-social_medium_twitter" data-endpoint="twitter" data-text="In all likelihood, the campaign will end up serving merely as
part of the broader political effort to garner support for Aung San Suu Kyi and
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<span class="pull-quote" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In all likelihood, the campaign will end up serving merely as part of the broader political effort to garner support for Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, ahead of the 2015 elections.</span> There are at least three reasons to assume this outcome.<br />
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First, what is the Lady's broader game plan? What will she do if the military rejects her call for constitutional reform? Will she launch a campaign of street protests? Judging by her statements to date, she has no plans to go that far. She insists that she's planning to reform the constitution in compliance with parliamentary procedure. Will she boycott the 2015 elections? Also unlikely. Such a move would leave her and her supporters in the political wilderness once again.</div>
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So what's left? The 2008 constitution does not provide any path for translating public opinion into policy apart from regular parliamentary elections and the right of voters to recall elected officials. (A controversial bill that would translate the latter principle into law remains <a href="http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs16/ICG-not-a-rubber-stamp-myanmars-legislature-in-a-time-of-transition-en-red.pdf" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">on hold</a>.) So long as Aung San Suu Kyi is committed to pursuing constitutional change according to the military's rules, it's hard to see how her strength on the streets can translate into actual reform in the parliament.</div>
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Meanwhile, the military and its associated political party are becoming savvier in dealing with the challenges posed by the opposition. Consistent with their <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/04/03/lets_face_it_democracy_in_burma_is_not_inevitable" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">strategy of co-optation</a>, the ruling elites do not reject anything outright. They typically respond to opposition demands by making partial concessions and preventing full-blown confrontation. On May 21st, the parliamentary Joint Committee for Reviewing the Constitution (JCRC) <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/committee-endorse-change-threshold-amending-constitution.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">announced</a> that its members had agreed to amend Article 436, saying that they will submit a proposal to parliament for a final decision. Though the incumbent-dominated JCRC did not reveal details of the proposal, it almost certainly won't do anything to help the opposition get what it wants. Moreover, the military chief recently <a href="http://www.networkmyanmar.org/images/stories/PDF16/C-in-C-27032014.pdf" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">made it clear</a> that any constitutional changes have to be passed according to the existing amendment procedures. In short, even if the military agrees to make concessions, the opposition will find it virtually impossible to pass a corresponding amendment.</div>
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Since Aung San Suu Kyi is unlikely to resort to full-on street protests or election boycotts, the main effect of her current campaign for constitutional reform will be to motivate her base to vote for her party in the 2015 elections. Even so, the effort does come with a substantial risk. The campaign could spark conflict with pro-government activists such as the Buddhist nationalists who have already declared their support for the incumbent president and Article 59F. More importantly, military leaders might view Aung San Suu Kyi's <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/suu-kyi-calls-army-members-sign-constitutional-reform-petition.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">call</a> for soldiers to sign the charter reform petition as a ploy to divide the military. It's precisely such fears that fuel continuing suspicion of the democratic forces among the officer corps. The Election Commission, for its part, <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/burma-election-commission-warns-suu-kyi-challenging-army.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">issued</a> a warning to Aung San Suu Kyi, chiding her for using language "challenging the army."</div>
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Whether or not the Lady has the stomach to pick another intractable fight with a new generation of military generals is a question that has to do with a second concern: the credibility of the constitutional reform campaign.</div>
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Given the country's complex ethnic makeup and its continuing civil war, minority groups are among the most important actors in Burmese political conflicts. So far, however, their representatives have been conspicuously absent from the stage at Aung San Suu Kyi's public rallies (even though the Lady has paid lip service to the federalist cause in her speeches). This seems odd, considering there's no way to build enough support to reform the constitution that bypasses the ethnic groups (whether inside or outside parliament). So the exclusion of the ethnic groups from the current campaign merely reinforces the conclusion that the NLD constitutional reform campaign is really just a way of preparing for the 2015 elections. Instead of the ethnic groups, the Lady has brought in her informal sidekick, the 88 Generation group. Observers agree that most of the group's leaders do not entertain electoral ambitions, so they have no plans to field candidates against Aung San Suu Kyi -- at least in the 2015 elections. </div>
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Finally, even if Aung San Suu Kyi throws all of her energy and resources into the campaign, the current political context does not seem to favor her. The current government's liberalization process might appear inclusive, but the reality is quite different. </div>
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<blockquote style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-image: none; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 1.875em; font-weight: 800; font: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 30px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="pull-quote" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 30px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">While the new regime has accepted Aung San Suu Kyi as a valid spokesperson in certain areas, it still refuses to give her any real power over policy.</span><br />
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<span class="pull-quote" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">While the new regime has accepted Aung San Suu Kyi as a valid spokesperson in certain areas, it still refuses to give her any real power over policy.</span> And there is little she can do to change that now, having given the government her blanket endorsement early on. The lady's public <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/apr/01/vote-confidence-burma-president-reform" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">announcement</a> of trust in President Thein Sein and his "genuine wishes for democratic reform" in 2012 granted the new regime much-needed domestic and international legitimacy; she may well regret that decision now, but what's done is done. Meanwhile, the anti-Muslim nationalist movement is preparing to push back if the Lady dares to launch a full-scale confrontation over the issue of constitutional reform.<br />
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The promise of the Arab Spring has ebbed. Turkey's once-promising democracy is torn between chaos and rising authoritarianism. And now Thailand has once again succumbed to military rule. Under such conditions, it's hard to imagine that the international community will wholeheartedly throw its weight behind the unpredictable Lady. The countries of the West, who have generally taken Aung San Suu Kyi's side, insist on categorizing Burma as a success story not only because of the presumed success of its "democratization," but also due to geostrategic interests. Here, for example, is what President Obama, <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2014/05/28/president-obama-speaks-west-point-graduates#transcript" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> about Burma in his recent speech to graduates of the U.S. military academy:</div>
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...[W]e have seen political reforms opening a once closed society; a movement by Burmese leadership away from partnership with North Korea in favor of engagement with America and our allies.... If Burma succeeds we will have gained a new partner without having fired a shot.</div>
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Given its ambiguous endgame, its weak credibility, and the changing domestic and international context, the opposition's amendment campaign is likely to fall short of its declared goal before the 2015 elections. The leader of the campaign, however, may have a very different perception of what counts as success.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;"><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/05/the_lady_rallies_the_masses_once_again" target="_blank">The Lady Rallies the Masses Once Again</a></span></div>
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<br />Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-69163645474259002962014-06-05T00:27:00.005-07:002014-06-05T00:27:55.455-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">Let's Face It: Democracy in Burma Is Not Inevitable</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN APRIL 3, 2014 - 05:04 PM</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Political scientist Jay Ulfelder recently posted an interesting <a href="http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2014/03/30/reform-in-burma-isnt-unraveling-yet-but-our-narrative-about-it-sure-is/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">analysis</a> of <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/28/why_burma_is_heading_downhill_fast" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">one of my recent articles</a> on <span class="fp_red" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Foreign Policy</span>. I generally make a point not to respond to criticism of my work unless there's a chance for meaningful dialogue. This is definitely one of those chances.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">In his post, Ulfelder argues that it's premature to say that the current political transition in Burma is "on the wrong track" unless we've figured out precisely what the nature of that transition is. He cites O'Donnell and Schmitter's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0801826829/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0801826829&linkCode=as2&tag=fopo-20" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">classic distinction</a> between "liberalization" and "democratization." Ulfelder believes that what's happening in Burma more readily fits the liberalization template, and he correspondingly cautions against imposing a wishful democratization narrative on a reality that doesn't bear the weight of such an assumption.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">I think that the difference between us has more to do with the focus of analysis rather than substance. While Ulfelder insists on the importance of drawing a conceptual and analytical distinction between liberalization, which "involves the expansion of freedoms from arbitrary acts of the state and others," and democratization, which "entails the expansion of popular consultation and accountability," I've found myself scrutinizing a possible relationship between liberalization and democratization, noting that democracy is one of many possible destinations as a society sets off on the journey away from an authoritarian regime.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">I do not at all dispute the important contribution that O'Donnell and Schmitter have made to the transition literature. It's worth noting that I've sometimes <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/01/25/homecoming" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">characterized</a> Burma's transition as a liberalization process in some of my previous posts for <span class="fp_red" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">FP</span>. At one point, back when the new government took power in 2011, I even <a href="http://www2.irrawaddy.org/print_article.php?art_id=21887" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">described</a> the process under way as a "regime-led and supply-side-driven political transition." My recent field research in Burma has even convinced me that the junta initially wasn't even aiming at liberalization when it made its decision to open up the political system in the aftermath of mass protests led by Buddhist monks in 2007. In fact, it appears that the original plan merely foresaw removing the military from direct political control and placing power fully in the hands of the military-backed party while allowing the military to maintain its veto-wielding power. Liberalization took off only six months after the transition began. The liberalization process that has taken place since then can be characterized, in my view, as an accident, an unanticipated outcome <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/28/why_burma_is_heading_downhill_fast" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">deriving</a> from the complex interactions of rival claimants to the throne. One can even speak, I believe, of the paradox of "liberalization without liberals."</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Since I first returned to Burma in late 2012 after 15 years in exile, however, I've experienced so many new on-the-ground realities that I've found myself compelled to shift the focus of my analysis. I've moved away from trying to define the nature of the transition (i.e., liberalization versus democratization) to analyzing its possible direction. Although doing my best to avoid political science jargon, what I've tried to argue consistently in my articles is that we really do need to take a closer look at the relationship between liberalization and democratization. The empirical evidence that I've observed in Burma's recent political and economic development strongly supports the conclusion that there is no linear or teleological process from liberalization to democratization.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Liberalization can end in multiple regime types, each characterized by <a href="http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/PS671/Collier_WP1997.pdf" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">different adjectives</a>. The initial liberalization process often leads to what Fareed Zakaria termed "<a href="http://fareedzakaria.com/1997/11/01/the-rise-of-illiberal-democracy/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">illiberal democracy</a>" (i.e., a diminished subtype of democracy), as in many Latin American countries in the early 2000s, to "oligarchy" in Russia, or to electoral authoritarianism in Malaysia and Cambodia (i.e., an enhanced subtype of authoritarianism). The question is whether liberalization will reinforce the military's dominant role in Burma, leading to one of the regime types mentioned above, or whether it will inevitably lead to democratization. I have to confess that I'm quite skeptical about the likelihood of the latter scenario.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">In domestic politics, the ruling elites still resort to coercion, but they prefer containment and co-optation: two carrots, even three or four, and then a stick, if necessary. This has been the case, for example, with the <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/12/01/burma-investigate-violent-crackdown-mine-protesters" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Sino-Burmese mining project</a> in Central Burma and recent <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/rangoon-land-protesters-undeterred-late-night-eviction.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">land rights protests</a> in Yangon. The continuing ethnic conflicts in northeastern Burma, the anti-Muslim riots, and the brutal killings of Rohingya are other obvious examples of how the state is still willing to use coercion to enforce its discriminatory policies. (In the photo above, police provide security as <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/12/19/burmas_senseless_census" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">census</a> takers survey a village near Sittwe.)</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Meanwhile, the new Burmese government and the military, unlike Than Shwe's junta, are more sensitive to international donors and investors for many reasons. So the costs that the international community (the "West") can impose on the government and the army are relatively and unprecedentedly high. The government is more sensitive and responsive (at least symbolically) to the international players, who have strong incentives to view Burma's reforms as a success story amid the chaotic failures of pro-democracy movements in the Middle East and the rest of the world. So the West rewards the government and the military to keep it on "right track," lifting sanctions against the military's business cronies.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Generally speaking, Western policymakers and observers dealing with Burma tend to speak in terms of "wait and see" or "give them a chance," "some progress is better than nothing" or "don't exert too much pressure." Meanwhile, the Burmese people continue to experience an overwhelming sense of their own powerlessness. This is an irony of the current hybrid regime in Burma: In some respects we see a high level of popular participation, yet many people still feel that they're really lacking any sense of genuine political efficacy.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">In my reports, I'm trying to offer readers more empirical facts from the ground and analyze them in the light of possible trajectories ahead. I'm increasingly convinced that the process of political opening in Burma is heading towards a particular brand of hybrid regime. In short, it's high time for us to call a spade a spade: We need to get over the hopeful talk of "democratization" in Burma and recognize that the country is, in fact, undergoing a liberalization process that doesn't necessarily lead toward liberal democracy.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">As I see it, there are three basic groups that have three fundamentally different views: In the view of the authoritarians (the Chinese and old regime hardliners), the predatory state under the old dictator served their interests well, so they long for yesterday. The liberalizers (including both Burma's current business cronies and Burma's friends in the West) welcome the space afforded by liberalization, so they live for today. Then there are the ordinary people of the country, who desperately yearn for more find that their path forward is still blocked. So the people of Burma feel that tomorrow does not belong to them.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts </i><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</i></a><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</i></span></div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/04/03/lets_face_it_democracy_in_burma_is_not_inevitable" target="_blank">Let's Face It: Democracy in Burma Is Not Inevitable</a></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-61052689174185525712014-06-05T00:04:00.001-07:002014-06-05T00:22:33.159-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Why Burma Is Heading Downhill Fast</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN MARCH 28, 2014</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">For the past few months, I've been unable to escape an ominous sense that the political situation in Burma is on the wrong track. There are two main reasons for my anxiety. First, Burma is undergoing a leadership crisis. Second, the possibility of large-scale social unrest is increasing.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Eight months ago, I wrote a post <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/10/a_state_of_anxiety#sthash.2KkHG2Uc.dpbs" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">explaining</a> why the deepening divisions within the country's political elites were undermining my previous feeling of cautious optimism. I tried to describe a general state of anxiety caused by rising communal violence, widespread hate speech against religious minorities, worsening poverty, and intensifying political rivalries. Back then, however, the substantive reasons for the disagreements within the troika of President Thein Sein, House Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, and democracy champion Aung San Suu Kyi weren't entirely clear. </span></div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">But now the contenders have taken off their gloves, and their fundamental political differences are starting to come out into the open.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-size: 30px; font-weight: 800; line-height: 36px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Aung San Suu Kyi and the ruling parties managed to work well together during the initial reform period. In 2011, a historic meeting between the Lady and President Thein Sein paved the way for Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, to run in the 2012 elections. That dramatic development encouraged the countries of the West to lift their sanctions on Burma. But now the two have fallen out, quite publicly, over whether and how to reform the <a href="http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs5/Myanmar_Constitution-2008-en.pdf" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">2008 constitution</a>, which was written by the then-ruling military junta. In 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi made constitutional reform one of her party's priorities, although even then it wasn't entirely clear what changes she wanted to make. In June of last year, she announced that she wanted to run for the presidency in the 2015 elections, <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/burma-suu-kyi-wants-to-be-president-in-2015/1676487.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">noting</a>: "For me to be eligible for the post of the presidency, the constitution will have to be amended." Aung San Suu Kyi was clearly referring to <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/us-ambassador-supports-constitutional-reform-calls-article-59f-relic-past.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Article 59 (f)</a> of the military-drafted constitution, which states that the president or vice-president cannot have a spouse or children who are foreign nationals. Aung San Suu Kyi had two sons with her late husband Michael Aris, and both are British citizens.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">So far, Thein Sein has not deigned to respond to Aung San Suu Kyi's reform demands. In November 2013, Aung San Suu Kyi <a href="http://www.myanmarupdate.com/suu-kyi-calls-for-meeting-between-key-political-players/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">made</a> an official demand for a meeting with key political players, including the president, the speaker, and Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, to discuss constitutional reform. The president <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-08/an-thein-sein-rejects-suu-kyi-demand/4742094" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">rejected</a> her request, however, and his move seems to have sharpened the sense of lingering antipathy towards him that the Lady has been expressing in her meetings with foreign dignitaries and local political elites ever since late 2012.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">In his latest speech to parliament on March 26, Thein Sein <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/thein-sein-lauds-reforms-backs-gentle-constitutional-change.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">urged</a> parliamentarians to pursue constitutional reform delicately and gently in order to avoid a political deadlock. Though he did not mention any possibility of top-level dialogue, the president noted, "The army still needs to be present at the political roundtable talks where political problems are solved by political means." If by these talks he means something more substantive than the usual parliamentary formality, it could signal that he is, in fact, open to the dialogue Aung San Suu Kyi requested, as long as members of the army are also at the table. Aung San Suu Kyi will need the military's support to get the amendment through parliament, and she believes Thein Sein is the only one who can persuade the military to bring its representatives to the table. In a press conference following the president's speech, the Lady <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/suu-kyi-shwe-mann-want-discuss-constitution-president-army-chief.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">insisted</a> that "only the president can make it [military cooperation] possible." Organizing top-level talks might allow Thein Sein to win public points without having to striking a deal with Aung San Suu Kyi directly.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Political heavyweight Shwe Mann -- who is not only House Speaker but also chairman of the ruling party and, reportedly, one of Aung San Suu Kyi's allies in the establishment --has <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/shwe-mann-article-59-priority.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> that amending Article 59 (f) is not "the only priority" that his party will pursue. The ruling party has also proposed dozens of changes to the constitution, including Article 59. Meanwhile, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing remains tight-lipped -- though many insiders believe that the army agrees with the president. This unresolved situation presents the risk of a leadership vacuum as Burma heads toward the 2015 general election. Who will qualify -- both in terms of constitutionality and popular support -- to run for president?</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">As long as the military continues to control the presidency rather than handing power over to a civilian leader like Aung San Suu Kyi, the legitimacy and stability of the political transition will be incomplete.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The looming leadership vacuum raises an important question for the country's <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/06/old_habits_die_hard" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">troubled transition</a>. To be sure, Burma has plenty of other constitutional problems that need to be addressed. (Foremost among them: the broad, veto-wielding power of the military and the lack of ethnic rights.) But it's the question of reforming Article 59 that inspires the most passion these days, precisely because of Aung San Suu Kyi's continuing popularity among the majority of the population. People tend to believe that having the Lady as president will automatically lead to the resolution of all the other problems that the constitution poses. The uncertainty surrounding the 2015 elections has created a sense of insecurity among the top players, prompting each of them to regroup, mobilize their own constituencies, and prepare for the fights that lie ahead.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Aung San Suu Kyi has become increasingly vocal in her criticism of the president. In so doing, she has resorted to her time-honored strategy: Pushing for change by wielding international and domestic pressure. She <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/world/story/suu-kyi-urges-world-pressure-myanmar-leaders-reform-20131021" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">continues to urge</a> her western supporters to pressure the government for constitutional reform. Since early 2013, she has been using her foreign trips and meetings with foreign leaders at home to ask them to urge the Burmese government to accept reform. Recently, she <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/nld-88-generation-target-military-veto-burma-constitutional-reform.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">teamed up</a> with the 88 Generation Group, the most influential force in Burma after Aung San Suu Kyi's party, to use the "people's power" to change the constitution. In a speech at a mass rally on March 22, 2014, she <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/suu-kyi-calls-public-join-demonstrations-constitutional-reform.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">called on</a> the public to join nationwide protests for constitutional reform.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">There is, however, a growing Buddhist nationalist movement that could serve as a counterweight to Aung San Suu Kyi's reform attempt. Radical Buddhist monks have now <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/thein-sein-asks-parliament-discuss-interfaith-marriage.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">succeeded</a> in pressing the government to enact laws that prohibit interfaith marriage. Though President Thein Sein might not be responsible for organizing the movement, he adopted its cause by asking parliament to consider the interfaith marriage ban a few weeks ago. Reliable sources tell me that Thein Sein is in regular contact with the nationalist movement, including Ashin Wirathu, a self-styled "<a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2146000,00.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Burmese bin Laden</a>" who is one of the movement's most controversial leaders. Some of the movement's leading monks have indicated that they would not support amending Article 59 (f), fearing that it might make Burma vulnerable to the threat of a Muslim or other non-Buddhist president in near future. Of course, these monks <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/suu-kyi-presidency-bring-chaos-says-firebrand-monk.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">urge</a> their followers to vote for Thein Sein instead of Aung San Suu Kyi, since they view her as too weak in her defense of nationalism and Buddhism. It is ironic to see Thein Sein, who was once reportedly <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-18/thein-sein3a-from-junta-elite-to-nobel-nominee/4579894" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">tipped to win a Nobel Peace Prize</a> for his reform efforts, <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/burma-president-see-change-reformist-nationalist.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">slip</a> into the embrace of ethno-nationalists.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><span class="pull-quote" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">None of this seems to impress Burma's ordinary citizens much -- which hardly comes as a surprise, given their continuing poverty and lack of rights.</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">They are left to cope with the daily reality of unemployment, illegal land grabs, official corruption, ethnic tension, and the inevitable outbursts of violence when government forces step in to suppress the resulting protests. (In the photo above, protesters pray during a demonstration against land grabs in Yangon.) Given the general atmosphere of tension, it is not hard to imagine how power struggles at the top might lead to partisan political protests, religious riots, or even terrorist attacks. Since the general level of trust and tolerance is so weak, and the capacity of the state so fragile, society could easily find itself in a situation even worse than Thailand's </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/02/18/the_thai_malaise" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">recent bout</a></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"> of political polarization. No wonder the </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Economist</i></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/21589143-where-protest-likeliest-break-out-ripe-rebellion" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">projected</a></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"> that Burma is at high risk of social unrest in 2014.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Unless Burma's leaders manage to reach a basic consensus about the speed and character of the transition, these risks will only mount. A few weeks ago I described the current situation in our country to some of my friends as a "slow-motion train wreck." As one of those listening put it: "Yes. And we, the people of Burma, are inside the train."</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/28/why_burma_is_heading_downhill_fast" target="_blank">Why Burma Is Heading Downhill Fast</a></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-65465440009535135972014-06-04T23:56:00.000-07:002014-06-04T23:56:27.292-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">What Burma Should Learn from Nelson Mandela</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN DECEMBER 7, 2013 - 12:34 PM</span></b><br />
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Madiba <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/06/world/africa/nelson-mandela_obit.html?hp&_r=2&" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">passed away</a> on Thursday night. Though it was expected for some time, given his long hospitalization, I was saddened, and guilty. I owed him an apology.</div>
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I had the opportunity to enjoy a one-on-one conversation with Nelson Mandela in 2003, when MTV was preparing a 60-minute <a href="http://stayingalivefoundation.org/video/meeting-mandela/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">special feature</a> in honor of his 85th birthday.</div>
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I was one of four young people selected to speak with Mandela and seek his advice during the special. We were chosen because our stories resonated with Mandela's life and the South Africa he sought to change. My own life was meant to parallel his experiences under the Apartheid regime and, more generally, we were both familiar with the struggle of building democracy. When my country's army executed a military coup in 1988, I was <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/19/paying_the_debt_25_years_later_burmas_struggle_for_freedom_isnt_over" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">deeply invested</a> in the student-led, pro-democracy movement. Since then, Burma has struggled to establish democracy, as the decades-long conflict between the military and ethnic minorities continues. Mandela and I exchanged our stories: his life in prison and my life on the run, evading arrest by the Burmese military junta.</div>
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We both had family members that suffered from the persecution of ruling regimes because of our political activities. I explained to him that my dad was arrested because of my activism, and held hostage while the military came to my home and tried to arrest me. It was 1989, and I was 15 years old. Since then, almost all of my family members have been arrested and interrogated. I asked Mandela, whose family suffered a similar fate during his imprisonment, whether he felt guilty -- and if so, how he had transformed his feelings of guilt into moral strength and positive action.</div>
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His answer was firm and encouraging. He told me that we should not take persecution personally, or feel guilt for the pain repressive governments inflict on our families. With his resolute voice, Mandela urged me to reconnect with my cause -- which is larger and more worthwhile than I am -- whenever I feel frustrated with personal misery or the lack of progress in the political struggle. After he finished speaking, he offered me a reassuring, broad smile and comforting nods; that struck me most of all. I still remember how fatherly Mandela was in his treatment of me.</div>
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Our conversation became a bit tense when I insisted that he speak out, publicly, in support of the Burmese democracy movement. My meeting with Mandela took place a few weeks after Burmese democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi was attacked by state-organized thugs on May 30, 2003. An unknown number of people died in the attack, and Aung San Suu Kyi only narrowly escaped the alleged <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/burmamyanmar/1434950/Mob-attack-on-Suu-Kyi-was-plan-to-murder.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">assassination attempt</a>.</div>
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I therefore requested that Mandela release a public statement denouncing the Burmese junta, and urged him to pay attention to the civil war and the miseries of ethnic minorities in my ill-fated country. I wore a T-shirt featuring a well-known student political prisoner, <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/13/burmas_moment_of_release" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Min Ko Naing</a>, under my shirt, and gave Mandela a gift of a traditional bag made by a Karen ethnic refugee women. I begged him: "Please join your fellow Nobel Laureates and do something public for Burma." In response, he looked me carefully in the eyes and said, slowly: "Min Zin, it is sometimes not a good idea to climb up to the top of the mountain and scream." When I gave him a puzzled look, he continued, "We often need to work on quiet diplomacy and engagement."</div>
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I responded to his words with disappointment and irritation. I thought it was a rude response. Mandela, however, stressed the importance of strategy in politics. He advised me to envision a positive outcome, rather than becoming stuck in the vicious circle of political polarization. Mandela used imagination and vision, rather than memory, to break out of the apartheid system. It's been ten years since I met Mandela, and though I still believe he could have done more for Burma's cause, I have now come to realize the core wisdom of his words, and the lesson Burma could learn from it.</div>
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These days, Burma's transition from tyranny to democracy is partly stymied by the opposition's attempt to institutionalize the memory of our past political divisions. Instead of putting forward a vision for the future and policies to make that vision a reality, the opposition leadership tends to employ a "good-versus-evil" political narrative as a key frame of reference in mobilizing the public. The opposition, of course, can gain a significant advantage by using this polarizing ploy. The public's distrust and hatred of the previous junta still poisons its opinion of the current pseudo-civilian government. However, using history as a campaign instrument has only encouraged dark forces within the establishment to defend themselves using "biology" in campaigns advocating <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspx" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">racial and religious purity</a>. These have ranged from an attempt to prohibit interfaith marriage, to rampant anti-Muslim hate speeches, to outright communal violence. The country is gradually sliding into a history-versus-biology political battle as it approaches the 2015 elections. What we really need is a truly democratic contest of vision and policy. The country lacks a sense of <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/06/07/national_security_is_no_excuse_for_bad_behavior_in_burma" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">unity</a>. True reconciliation and healing remain elusive in this fragile transition.</div>
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Mandela was right. When invoking memory becomes a political strategy, society suffers from a lack of imagination. Without a new vision for the future, we cannot move on and be reborn.</div>
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After our conversation ended, he introduced me to his grandchildren. He said to them, "Although Min Zin disagreed with me on some issues, I respect him." After a short pause, he continued: "Because he is a freedom fighter." His words electrified me. Now Mandela has passed away. I have had ten years to learn to appreciate the value he placed on vision and imagination over history and memory. I understand now. I owe him an apology -- but Madiba has already gone.</div>
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<i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts </i><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</i></a><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</i></div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/12/07/what_burma_should_learn_from_nelson_mandela" target="_blank">What Burma Should Learn from Nelson Mandela</a>Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-70679276734978585362014-06-04T23:49:00.000-07:002014-06-04T23:49:12.034-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">Why It Makes Sense to Engage with Burma's Military</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN SEPTEMBER 19, 2013 - 05:56 PM</span></b><br />
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On September 18, Burma marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the most important military coup in its recent history. When state-owned radio announced that the military had taken over at 4 p.m. on Sept. 18, 1988, I was just 14. My fellow students and I were staging a hunger strike as part of a nonviolent protest to call for the restoration of democracy in Burma.</div>
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A dreary rain was falling. A voice on the radio read the coup announcement over and over again, alternating with loud military marching songs. The noise from the radio was agonizing enough. But then we heard a series of gunshots, and when we realized that they were gradually getting closer, older students and community leaders rushed to a nearby intersection to set up roadblocks so that an approaching column of soldiers couldn't reach us and clear out our camp. The younger hunger strikers, including myself, were promptly escorted to a nearby Buddhist monastery that the opposition was using as a refuge from the military crackdown. The junta imposed martial law and a corresponding curfew. General Saw Maung, the man in charge of the coup, once notoriously <a href="http://www2.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=2592" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">stated</a> that "martial law means that there's no law in the country."</div>
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In the military crackdown that followed, I saw people being shot to death in front of me. Thousands of people, including many of my colleagues, left for the border areas, where ethnic rebel groups helped them form a student army to wage an armed struggle against the junta. After a few months of activism, I went into hiding to avoid arrest. That period ultimately lasted nine years. Eventually I crossed the border into Thailand in 1997. I've worked as a journalist ever since.</div>
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That was 25 years ago. In 2011, President Thein Sein (once the top general in the previous junta) took office, and the government he headed soon began signaling a political opening and the possibility of reform. Thein Sein's administration released political prisoners, lifted media censorship, and allowed opposition participation in the country's parliament. Most exiles, including me, were allowed to come back home.</div>
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I recently went back to the place where we staged the hunger strike and the monastery where we took refuge. It was a surreal experience. None of the people in my old neighborhood believed that they would ever see me again in this life. They've always assumed that anyone who fled the country and lived in exile would never be able to return. Whenever they see me again, they pinch my hand as if to convince themselves that it's really me. They hope, they tell me, that our horrible past won't ever be repeated. I have the same dream. I don't ever want to relive such a tragic past, not even in memory. And yet I sometimes feel like we're reliving those old days again, right now.</div>
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People often ask me if I think the country is sliding back into the dark age of military rule. If someone had asked me that question last year, I would have given a more optimistic answer. But now, I see that Burma and my people are slipping into <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/10/a_state_of_anxiety" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">a state of profound anxiety</a> as communal riots, deepening poverty, ongoing civil strife, and the rivalries of political elites ravage the country. I don't think we can rule out any scenarios. In fact, two senior insiders of the ruling party have told me that another coup could well be a last resort if the nation slides into chaos.</div>
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A coup can be carried out legally under the current constitution, and that's the likely outcome if the reforms fundamentally hurt the army's institutional, political, or economic prerogatives. The military's decision to stage a coup, however, would depend not only on domestic politics, but also on the army's geopolitical calculations.</div>
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The Burmese military has long been aware of its over-dependence on China for equipment and training as well as political and economic support. Almost all the former and current military officers I've met tell me that the quality of Chinese equipment is terrible. The officers can still remember the days when they received U.S. military assistance, which they preferred. They recall that the United States financed $4.7 million in military sales in the 1980s as well as <a href="http://cogitasia.com/considering-international-military-engagement-and-training-in-myanmar/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">paid</a> for about 175 Burmese officers to attend U.S. military schools under the International Military Education and Training (IMET) security assistance program. This bilateral defense relationship was abruptly terminated by the United States when the Burmese army seized power in September 1988. That was the end of the "good old days," as one officer lamented.</div>
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Since the mid-1990s, the Burmese army has been eager to diversify and reduce its dependence on China. But U.S.-led Western arms embargoes have prevented the military from doing so. Yet the military's willingness to support political reform in Burma has won Washington's support. Now a lot is riding on the possibility of reestablishing military-to-military relations with the Western countries.</div>
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The U.S. defense secretary <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57446000/panetta-open-to-military-relations-with-burma/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> in 2012 that the United States was open to forging better military ties with Burma. Early this year, the United States allowed Burma to send a team of observers to the <a href="http://www.defense.gov/News/NewsArticle.aspx?ID=119256" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Cobra Gold military exercise</a> in Thailand. In late August 2013, U.S. Ambassador Derek Mitchell <a href="http://www.dvb.no/news/us-to-boost-military-ties-with-burma-but-warns-of-n-korea-connection/32040" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">met</a> with the head of Burma's armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, to discuss legal practices in military combat in a "cordial" effort to strengthen defense relations between the two countries. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/modest-relations-considered-to-support-reform/story-e6frg8yo-1226560412364" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Australia</a>, <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/40175" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Britain</a>, and other Western countries are also gradually resuming military ties with Burma.</div>
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Though the skeptics are rightly <a href="http://www.navytimes.com/article/20130905/NEWS08/309050002/U-S-Myanmar-military-ties-spark-unease" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">uneasy</a> about the nature and extent of such defense relations, the opportunity to re-engage with Western militaries is an important incentive for the military's continued support of political reform.</div>
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In short, any positive political concessions the Burmese military is likely to make regarding constitutional reform and the 2015 elections rest to a significant degree on a mil-to-mil incentive package from the United States. I think that smart, timely action by the United States to reconnect with the Burmese military would be one of the best insurance polices against another military take-over. And that could well save me and my compatriots from reliving that tragic day in September 1988.</div>
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<i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts </i><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</i></a><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</i></div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/09/19/why_it_makes_sense_to_engage_with_burmas_military" target="_blank">Why It Makes Sense to Engage with Burma's Military</a>Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-75573682949375747082014-06-04T23:42:00.003-07:002014-06-04T23:42:56.292-07:00<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"><b>Why Peace Is Still a Tough Sell</b></span><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN SEPTEMBER 10, 2013 - 11:31 AM</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Burma has witnessed the breaking of many political taboos over the past two years. Perhaps the most significant example is the use of the word "federalism" by the powers-that-be. During his recent visit to the country's northeast, Thura Shwe Mann, the speaker of Parliament, <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/43388" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> that Burma should adopt a form of federal union. That Shwe Mann, once the number-three general in the former ruling junta, now sees fit to express public support for the federalist idea suggests that the elite's long-held phobia about decentralization is losing steam.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">When the Burmese army staged a coup in 1962, it justified the takeover by claiming it was preventing the country from falling apart. The army claimed that the Shan ethnic-led political movement, which called for establishment of a federal union in Burma, was a secessionist effort to disintegrate this multi-ethnic country. Yet as the military tightened its grip on power, several ethnic groups took up arms against the central junta, leading the country into what would become one of the world's longest-running civil wars.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Now President Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government is pursuing peace negotiations with dozens of ethnic armed groups, possibly the most complicated and challenging task it has tackled since early 2011. If the president's initiative succeeds, it could mean the end of Burma's decades-long civil war. So it's worth taking a closer look at the peace process and its feasibility. Let's start with the government's plan.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Generally speaking, the whole peace process is an executive-led initiative. The Myanmar Peace Center (MPC), led by reform-minded ministers Aung Min and Soe Thein, plays an essential role in facilitating on-the-ground negotiations (as well as the ensuing complaints, protests and controversies). With the help of the MPC, the government has thus far struck ceasefire deals with fourteen ethnic armed groups despite ongoing battles with Kachin state in northern Burma and other ethnic resistance armies.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">President Thein Sein has made it <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/42073" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">very clear</a> on many occasions that the country would soon see a nationwide ceasefire signed between the government and ethnic rebel armies. The government plans to hold a grand ceremony in October of this year to sign a nationwide ceasefire accord with the 14 ethnic armed groups and is keeping the door open for other armed groups to enter the agreement at any time. The government, working in coordination with all stakeholders -- including ethnic groups, Union Parliament, the military, political parties and civil society organizations -- will then draft a framework for a national political dialogue. Thein Sein and his aides are aiming for nothing less than a complete end to the civil war.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">And that, needless to say, is a very ambitious goal indeed. They'll need a lot of luck in order to pull it off.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The president and his associates seem to mean well. They hope to put the country on the right track while they're still in power and to leave behind a positive legacy. Some cynics believe the president is only in it to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize -- in fact, he's already a <a href="http://scandasia.com/former-finnish-president-sees-nobel-peace-prize-for-myanmar-government/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">strong contender</a>. Regardless of his motives, the plan has at least the potential to yield a good outcome for Burmese citizens.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">In any case, the motives behind the government's push are ultimately irrelevant. The real crux of the matter is whether the government has the power to negotiate peace in the first place. President Thein Sein's administration will only be in office for another two years before the next general election in 2015. According to reliable sources, Thein Sein and many reformists are not likely to run for office again, so they're effectively brokering this deal as lame duck politicians. It's going to be a tough sell.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Two other powerful players in Burmese politics, Aung San Suu Kyi (leader of the opposition group National League for Democracy in Burma) and Thura Shwe Mann (speaker of Parliament), may have little incentive to jump on the bandwagon. As I noted in <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/10/a_state_of_anxiety" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">one of my previous posts</a>, the rivalry among these three key players -- Thein Sein, Shwe Mann, and Suu Kyi -- is only getting worse. Moreover, the latter two have struck an uneasy alliance in order to outmaneuver Thein Sein in many of his recent political postures.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Recently, Shwe Mann <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/39208" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">questioned</a> Thein Sein's approach to ethnic peace talks and asked that Parliament be directly involved in ceasefire negotiations with ethnic groups. The MPC then invited both Shwe Mann and Suu Kyi to its office for a long briefing on the peace talks. Shwe Mann has just completed an official tour in Shan state, where he met with representatives of the most powerful ethnic armed group, the United Wa State Army. For Shwe Mann, who publicly declared that he wants to be the next president of the country, this is a great opportunity to garner ethnic support for his 2015 campaign. And since Shwe Mann wants to be the leader who can claim that he successfully ended the civil war and brought peace to Burma, his timeline is longer than that of the ruling lame ducks.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Meanwhile, Suu Kyi has also announced her 2015 campaign for presidency. Her position appears to be harder to track these days. Before her release from house arrest in 2010, she supported the ethnic cause and showed political and moral solidarity with ethnic resistance groups by sending videos and other messages to them. Even after she was freed in 2010, she continued to advocate the holding of a nationwide conference to address ethnic conflicts in Burma. But since entering Parliament, Suu Kyi has toned down her stance on ethnic issues. She has said, for example, that she is taking a neutral stand in the ethnic civil war in Kachin state. It's increasingly apparent that her once whole-hearted support from the ethnic groups is now dwindling. Nevertheless, Suu Kyi remains a prominent and respected figure in international politics, and the Burmese government must still count on her when it comes to securing international legitimacy and resources.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The most important strategic players in this peace process are the armed forces: both the government army and the troops of the ethnic rebel groups. As a general rule, these armed forces tend to be more institutionalized, and their leaders tend to plan for the long term (unlike the above-mentioned politicians who are focused primarily on the 2015 elections). The armed forces on both the government and rebel sides, therefore, have relatively stable stances and strategies on issues such as territorial control, economic gains, and the consideration of geopolitical influences such as China and Thailand.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The success of the president's peace plan thus depends less on simple hard work and good will than on the tricky process of bargaining among these multiple strategic interests. Burma's long civil war comes down to more than just inter- and intra- ethnic power distributions. Among many other factors it involves the interests of neighboring countries and illicit businesses. The lifting of the federalism taboo is most welcome. But unless President Thein Sein is somehow able to work around the interests and motives of all the key players and strike a strategic bargain, the true end of the civil war in Burma remains elusive.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts </i><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</i></a><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">.</i></span></div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/09/10/why_peace_is_still_a_tough_sell" target="_blank">Why Peace Is Still a Tough Sell</a></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-17456309006661128032014-06-04T23:37:00.000-07:002014-06-04T23:43:29.720-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Paying the Debt: 25 Years Later, Burma's Struggle for Freedom Isn't Over</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN AUGUST 19, 2013 - 10:05 AM</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Twenty-five years have now passed since Burma started its struggle for democracy. It began as the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8888_Uprising" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">8-8-88 Movement</a>,” a nationwide popular uprising calling for the removal of military dictatorship and the restoration of democratic government. Tens of thousands of young Burmese took to the streets, shouting the slogan: “To achieve democracy is our cause, our cause.”</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">I was a 14-year-old high school student when I became involved in political activism in 1988 (after two of my siblings were arrested in a student protest at the Rangoon university campus). We distributed pamphlets and leaflets in our schools, staged hit-and-run protests in neighborhoods after school, established contacts with other high schools, and went together to Rangoon University to join their protests. I went on to become one of the founding leaders of the nation-wide high school student union in Burma -- where unions are illegal and just being a member could result in long-term imprisonment.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Student-led protests eventually snowballed into a nationwide popular uprising on August 8, 1988 (8-8-88). You can think of it, without much exaggeration, as the "Burmese Spring." The public, including many sympathetic members of the police force and army, took to the streets; civil society groups mushroomed in every region and social sector; and media freedom thrived as dozen of independent publications sprang up. (Even the journalists at some state-owned media practitioners joined the democracy protests and reported on the demonstrations.) The spring, however, did not last long. Winter came early and nipped our hopes in the bud. On September 18 the military staged a coup, killing hundreds of unarmed protesters. According to <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Burma-Insurgency-Politics-Ethnicity-contemporary/dp/1856496600" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">independent estimates</a>, at least 10,000 people were killed in August and September of 1988.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">After 25 years, veterans of the “Four Eight” uprising came together to commemorate the movement and its fallen heroes. The biggest event in the country was held in Rangoon on the 8th of this month with exhibitions, speeches, and a theatrical performance. More than ten thousand people attended the anniversary event, where they listened to opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi give <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/41729" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">a speech</a>. Many of my former colleagues set up a stand in the exhibition hall to commemorate the activities of high school students in 1988 and to remember our fallen stars including <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/41434" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Win Maw Oo</a>, <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/11/he_was_a_hero_and_my_friend" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Thet Win Aung</a>, and <a href="http://www2.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=2669&page=1" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Maung Maung Kywe</a>. Family members of those who died in the protests of the Four Eight movement or in imprisonment were in full attendance.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">For me it was an incredible reunion. For the first time I had a chance to share stories with my former colleagues, and together we filled in many of the missing parts of our revolutionary puzzle.<span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span>Some of us died, others went insane, and the rest struggled through a dark age of crackdowns, torture chambers, imprisonment, and exile. Political conviction, a sense of solidarity, and the occasional favorable twist of fate helped us to cope with those days of political turmoil and suffering. Some of us were struck by seemingly avoidable misfortunes, while others managed to make improbable escapes from this worldly hell of autocratic repression.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Many of us tend to agree that the continuing political transition is worthy of appreciation. Some of the key leaders of the previous junta attended or sent <a href="http://english.sina.com/world/2013/0808/616870.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">goodwill messages</a> to the event as a gesture of acknowledgment of the role the Four Eight movement played in the political opening. In fact, the massive release of political prisoners, the removal of media censorship, Aung San Suu Kyi’s entry into mainstream politics as a member of parliament, the return of exiled activists, and the country’s re-engagement with the West all constitute unprecedented progress that we have witnessed in a considerably short period of time.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">It doesn’t mean that we don’t recognize the very substantial flaws inherent in the process so far. They include the <a href="http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/sites/default/files/17_23.4%20diamond%20(advance).pdf" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">flawed constitution</a> that the military adopted in 2008 to entrench its supremacy in politics by reserving 25 percent of seats in parliament, by allowing the generals to appoint the three most important cabinet ministers, by authorizing the armed forces to take power in case of state emergency, and by limiting meaningful autonomy for ethnic minorities. Meanwhile we are still contending with the effects of simmering civil war and ethnic conflict, rising nationalism and communal violence, deepening poverty and a widening gap between rich and poor. The military has allowed unprecedented popular participation in Burmese politics, but they still control real political and economic power by means of the 2008 constitution and highly skewed wealth distribution. Access to power has been dramatic ally broadened, but the exercise of power remains in the same hands: the military’s.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">For this reason, all of us who attended the reunion felt acutely that our mission still has not been accomplished. There is one 8-8-88 memory that has never let go of me. When we were marching during the 1988 democracy movement, the people had nothing to eat, but they made rice bags for us so that we could eat and keep marching. When we collected the rice bags, we always promised them: "You will get democracy one day." So far, we haven’t kept our promise.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">I feel that our movement still owes the people for the food we ate. This is a very simple thing, but the sense of responsibility remains. The rice I ate 25 years ago still gives me the energy and power to keep going.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts </i><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">here</i></a><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">. </i></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #666666; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 32px;">TOMMASO VILLANI/AFP/Getty Images</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #666666; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 32px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;"><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/19/paying_the_debt_25_years_later_burmas_struggle_for_freedom_isnt_over" target="_blank">Paying the Debt: 25 Years Later, Burma's Struggle for Freedom Isn't Over</a></span></span></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-36808101231301048162014-06-04T23:29:00.000-07:002014-06-04T23:43:14.970-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">A Few Thoughts about Social Engineering in Burma</span></b><br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-obafGii_mY8/U5ADA7Y_UaI/AAAAAAAACZg/FzZxVNYYESY/s1600/FP.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-obafGii_mY8/U5ADA7Y_UaI/AAAAAAAACZg/FzZxVNYYESY/s1600/FP.png" height="200" width="198" /></a></div>
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN JULY 26, 2013 - 06:37 PM</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">When you first arrive in Naypyidaw, as I did last week, you can't help but experience a peculiar sensation of equal parts awe and fear. In just a few years, the then-ruling military junta carved a new Burmese capital out of pure jungle. It came at a cost of billions of dollars to a country where most people live in poverty. "Only an autocrat would come up with a grandiose project like this" I mused, "at the expense of all other important things, of course." </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">During his reign from 1992 to 2011 as Burma's top strongman, General <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/34194" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Than Shwe</a> made the decision to build Naypyidaw hundreds of miles inland from the traditional coastal capital of Rangoon. He and his comrades hyped it as one of the world's ten fastest growing cities. Today you can drive down spotless four-lane roads (almost entirely bereft of traffic) past impressive vistas of apartment blocks, ministries, and hotels. The roads are lined by rows of replanted palm trees. The gigantic buildings, roomy gardens, and neon lights glowing 24 hours a day dazzle visitors who are arriving from parts of the country where frequent power shortages and darkness are the norm. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">But dictators don't only have a fondness for hypertrophic building projects. They also have an irrepressible tendency to redesign society to their own peculiar specifications. It's an urge that also manifests itself in small, everyday things -- as I'm frequently being reminded now that I've returned to my home country again after 16 years of life overseas. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">That's the thought that occurred to me whenever I came back from my rounds in the capital and stepped into the lobby of my hotel, where the staff invariably welcomed me with the greeting <i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mingala-ba</i>. In practice it means "may you be blessed" (though it literally translates to "auspiciousness to you").</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">This greeting always amuses me. When I was a student in Burma 25 years ago, no one greeted one another with such formal affectation. The only exception was in our school classroom, where students would greet their teachers while standing at attention with folded arms. This salutation was originally adopted in nationalist schools in the 1930s when the country was under colonial rule. It was supposed to serve as an authentic Burmese replacement for the English-language greeting. "Good morning, teacher" (or "good afternoon"). </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Actually, though, the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1558681485/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=1558681485&linkCode=as2&tag=fopo-20" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">typical greetings</a> among Burmese usually take the form of rhetorical questions: </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">"How are you doing?"</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">"Are you well?"</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">"Where are you going?"</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">"Have you eaten your meal?" </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The greeting that tends to startle my Western friends (especially women) is one that the Burmese say when they haven't seen each other for a while: "You've put on/lost weight" or "You look exactly the same." </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">It turns out, though, that greeting habits have changed under the decades of military rule. Apparently <i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mingala-ba</i> is the new thing. When I looked at the "Greetings" section of a recent edition of<i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lonely Planet</i>'s Burma edition, it advises travelers to "greet someone by saying <i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mingala-ba.</i>" It also recommends that you should accompany the words by pressing your palms together in a prayer-like fashion -- a custom, known as the <i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">wai</i> that actually comes from Thailand. There's nothing especially Burmese about this at all. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">In the 1990s, the junta enforced this newly fashioned <i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mingala-ba</i>greeting in civilian-military interactions as a Burmese norm. The sights of people (ironically teachers of public schools in most cases) putting their palms together and paying prayer-like respect to the generals were commonplace in Burmese media. A state-owned paper then claimed (in a state of delusion) that the common sight of people paying respect to generals prove how much people admire the military even though the military leaders are not dynastic kings.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Physical entities such as Naypyidaw and social practices such as<i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mingala-ba</i> have been put in place through direct coercion. The effects of Junta-imposed socialization shape people's interpretation of their world and define appropriate behaviors. Ultimately, imposed fashioning of norms and knowledge influences political action. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Another striking example of this principle at work involves the census. Many people here in Burma, including many opposition activists, rather blithely accept the official government census figures, including its numbers on the ethnic groups in the country. Yet the Burmese military has long insisted on using the term "race" rather than "ethnic group." The junta deemed the number of such "races" in Burma to be 135. This is actually a figure from the colonial era that was based on a survey of linguistic diversity, including a variety of dialects, and certainly not in any traditional understanding of the term. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Some observers <a href="http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4965:135-counting-races-in-burma&catid=115:opinions&Itemid=308" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">point out</a> just how sloppy the junta was when it came to conducting the census. The military, which had attempted to deny the importance of ethnicity for several decades, suddenly changed course in 1988, when it began aggressively promoting this colonial breakdown of "races." The junta claimed that these 135 races had to be consulted in the formation of any new constitution and regime. Some <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Burma-Myanmar-David-I-Steinberg/dp/0878408932/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1374690765&sr=8-1&keywords=David+Steinberg%2C+Burma%3A+The+State+of+Myanmar%2C+%28Georgetown+University+Press%2C+2001%29" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">scholars</a> believe that this was intended to complicate Burma's political landscape and create the impression that the pro?democracy opposition (despite winning a landslide election in 1990) was incapable of representing "country with 135 national races." Yet quite a few activists and journalists I've met here maintain that there are indeed 135 races, and they express their concerns about ethnic cleavages in the country based on this count. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">What this shows is that statistics about ethnicity have become a completely artificial construct. The world view implied by this approach has entrenched itself, making it much harder for people to imagine other ways of thinking about their country's ethnic diversity. So this is a good, if somewhat depressing example, of how the old ruling elite's way of shaping reality has survived the transition to a more liberal form of rule. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">I would argue that all autocrats tend to suffer from a kind of compulsive-obsessive disorder. As a rule, they don't like to leave things to chance -- no matter how trivial some of those things might seem to be. The old junta fit this pattern quite well. Over the past 25 years they have made extensive efforts to condition people to think and feel in ways that serve the dominant ideology. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Burma's society is changing and whether or not I agree, there is little that one man can do about it. But let me make one caveat: If constructed practices are to be the new norm, let there at least be a little sense about it. Please don't greet a bereaved person with the<i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mingala-ba</i> greeting, because death is not an auspicious occasion. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">here</a>. </i></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #666666; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 32px;">CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP/Getty Images</span></div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/26/a_few_thoughts_about_social_engineering_in_burma" target="_blank">A Few Thoughts about Social Engineering in Burma</a></div>
<br />Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-83009032245054138132014-06-04T23:19:00.000-07:002014-06-04T23:19:19.192-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">A State of Anxiety</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN JULY 10, 2013 - 05:05 PM</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">I visited Burma for the first time in 16 years last December. Back then I felt <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/29/you_cant_go_home_again" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">relative optimism</a> about our country's political transition -- despite its deepening poverty, the ongoing war against the Kachin ethnic group, and sectarian violence between Buddhists and Muslims. The <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/13/burmas_moment_of_release" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">release</a> of hundreds of political prisoners, the emergence of a free press, and Aung San Suu Kyi's electoral victory in the <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/30/the_lady_s_leap_of_faith" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">2012 by-elections</a> gave people reason to hope that the country would soon be free and developed.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Now I've come back, and this time I see a totally different country. The winds of change are carrying a bad smell rather than fresh air. Anti-Muslim hate speech and riots have spread to major cities, and Buddhist monks are aggressively interfering in our multi-ethnic polity by <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/38987" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">pushing</a> a draft law that restricts inter-faith marriages. The monks are even threatening politicians who refuse to endorse their bill with retaliation when the country holds its next general election three years from now. There's no doubt that elements within both the ruling elite and the political opposition are taking advantage of rising ultra-nationalism by either jumping on the bandwagon or dodging responsibility for tackling the problem. Horrible as this is, it's not just ethnic and religious minority groups that are being attacked. Women, too, are increasingly becoming victims of ideological extremism and political opportunism, as manifested by the draft law on inter-faith marriage. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">But perhaps the most worrisome trend in Burma these days is a widening split between the president and the powerful speaker of the lower house of parliament. Worst of all, part of the responsibility for the resulting anxiety lies with Aung San Suu Kyi, since she has decided to side with Speaker Thura <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/28/the_dicey_democrat" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Shwe Mann</a> against the government.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Since the start of the political opening and the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14585995" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">initial negotiations</a>between Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein in 2011, observers have noted that a stable relationship among the three leading figures in the country -- the president, the speaker of the house, and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi -- is critical to the success of Burma's reform. There has been a constant personal (and to some extent institutional) <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/12/coming_apart_at_the_seams" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">rivalry</a> between the president and the speaker almost from the beginning of the current transition. But despite everything the two men's relationship has never been as ugly as it is right now.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Most recently, the speaker has <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/39208" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">challenged</a> the government's approach to peace talks with the ethnic rebel groups, demanding parliament's direct involvement in ceasefire negotiations with the<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/08/one_year_of_the_kachin_war" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Kachin</a>. "I've been informed by some lawmakers and through public opinion that the peace talks have failed to achieve peace," Shwe Mann told parliament.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">He has even <a href="http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/national-news/7377-ndsc-agrees-to-meet-each-week-during-hluttaw.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">called for</a> a meeting of National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), the military-dominated eleven-member body that holds wide-ranging powers, in order to discuss the executive's handling of the peace issue. This unusual attempt to activate the<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/07/it_s_time_for_burma_s_president_to_act" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">NDSC</a>, which has not met for some time, raised the eyebrows of several observers who once viewed the speaker of the house as a champion of reform. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">It is now clear that Shwe Mann's move was intended to weaken President Thein Sein and his reformist aides from the government think tank, the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC). The president is reportedly being strongly considered as a candidate to win the Nobel Peace Prize later this year for his reforms, and any major fallout from the intensifying power struggle within the troika could damage his credibility and even put proposed reforms off track.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">But even before Shwe Mann began his public criticism of the government's peace initiative, Aung San Suu Kyi said in late May that the government's reform measures in recent years "have produced no tangible changes" for the rule of law and peace in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi's unofficial alliance with Shwe Mann against the government, therefore, has become the biggest constraint on Thein Sein's power.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Many people in intellectual circles and the business community worry that Aung San Suu Kyi is in the wrong political camp. Civil society activists are dismayed by her political maneuvering within the elite and her neglect of the population's more immediate problems, ranging from ethno-religious conflicts to dire poverty. It seems that all stakeholders, including the ethnic groups, will be forced to take sides in this escalating power struggle as the 2015 elections approach.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">All observers, in any case, tend to agree that the political situation in Burma this year is becoming a serious cause for anxiety. One last thing that could compound these concerns is the lack of clarity about the military's preferences. No one knows whether the head of the armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, will choose to take sides in this power struggle, or whether he entertains political ambitions of his own. If the latter is the case, it would almost certainly complicate Burma's political transition and perhaps disrupt the reform process. Given the recent events in Egypt, there seems good reason to be worried about the possibility of a fresh military coup in Burma as well. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">here</a>.</i></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #666666; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 32px;">Soe Than WIN/AFP/Getty Images</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #666666; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 32px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: small; line-height: normal;"><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/10/a_state_of_anxiety" target="_blank">A State of Anxiety</a></span></span></div>
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Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-60934099370908978832014-06-04T23:04:00.001-07:002014-06-04T23:43:45.360-07:00<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"><b>Burma's Presidential Race Takes Off</b></span><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN JUNE 21, 2013 - 02:27 PM</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The 2015 presidential election campaign in Burma is already underway. During his visit to the United States in last week, Shwe Mann, the former junta's No. 3 and now speaker of the house in Burma's parliament, has officially <a href="http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/shwe-mann-06102013161202.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">announced</a> that he will run for president two years from now. Since the current president, Thein Sein, is unlikely to campaign again for the job, this means that Shwe Mann (shown in the photo above) is now set to become the presidential nominee of the ruling USDP party. (Shwe Mann became the head of the party after Thein Sein <a href="http://www.dvb.no/news/thein-sein-resigns-as-chairman-of-burma%E2%80%99s-ruling-party/27866" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">resigned</a> as its chairman last month.) So it looks like Shwe Mann will be entering the race against opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who also recently <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/burma-suu-kyi-wants-to-be-president-in-2015/1676487.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">announced</a> that she'll be running for the presidency. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">A bit of background may help to understand the context.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">First, the current, military-drafted constitution stipulates that the president is elected indirectly. The president is selected by a committee consisting of representatives from the three different branches of parliament: the upper house, the lower house, and the military members of the parliament who control a quarter of seats in both houses. Each group nominates a candidate as a vice president, and then the entire committee selects the president from the three vice presidential nominees.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Second, the constitution <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/19/us-myanmar-suukyi-idUSBRE95I1P920130619?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">bars</a> anyone married to a foreigner or who has children that are foreign citizens. Aung San Suu Kyi had a British husband who died in late 1999 when the Lady (as we Burmese often refer to her) was under house arrest. Since her children have British nationalities, she would be barred on both fronts. While many are clamoring for the prohibition to be struck down, it's not easy to amend the key clauses of the constitution. All amendments require both a national referendum and over 75 percent support in parliament, where the military controls 25 percent through reserved seats.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Third, the 2015 election is likely to take place in the context of continuing political and social instability given that the civil war, racial and religious riots, and labor and land rights protests are not close to being resolved. Such instability could determine the new administration's capacity to govern following the 2015 elections. A persistent concern is that such instability could be used to justify the reversal of the current political transition and the return of military administration. Were this to happen, however, it would be much subtler than this "return to the dark age of military rule."</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The critical question for many sober observers is not whether Aung San Suu Kyi will win the 2015 election, but whether she can successfully <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/01/it_s_time_for_aung_san_suu_kyi_to_get_serious_about_management" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">govern</a> an impoverished country plagued by ethnic, racial, and religious violence unless she has the assistance of the old guard. She has little experience of government, and lately she has been staging a political one-woman show without giving much attention to the institutionalization of her own party (let alone the whole opposition movement). She has yet to explain to the public (and even her own hardcore supporters) the political dialogue that she has been conducting with the government, though she loves to talk about "a need for transparency, accountability, and a change of mindset" and other high-minded abstractions. The only information that we have about negotiations between the Lady and the government comes from senior leaders of the ruling party.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The election will be an important one for Burma's transition, and there's reason to be optimistic about the outcome. But it's important to keep in mind the practical aspects involved in running a country, much less one that that is suffering the complex issues that Burma faces. The ongoing turmoil (especially racial and religious violence deriving from Burman-Buddhist nationalism) appears to weaken Aung San Suu Kyi's hand and should force her to concede that she can't run the country alone without receiving help from the military, the ruling party, and even their business cronies. Some key players in the international community (above all European diplomats, and the Americans to a lesser extent) now appear to be convinced that a power-sharing arrangement between Aung San Suu Kyi and the ruling party offers the best insurance policy against a possible reversal of the transition process. No wonder that Shwe Mann, during his U.S. visit, made a point of saying that he doesn't out a post-election coalition government with the opposition party if it's in the national interest. A few days later, a USDP daily paper published a photo of Aung San Suu Kyi's 68th birthday celebration, where Shwe Mann was a prominent presence.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Political horse-trading between the ruling party and Aung San Suu Kyi is to be welcomed if it leads to an inclusive pact to promote liberalization and democracy. In the worst-case scenario, though, a coalition between the two sides could lead merely to a slightly expanded version of the present ruling elite, one that would not necessarily govern in the people's interest. If that happens, the 2015 election might turn out to be something of a sideshow.</span></div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/06/21/burma_s_presidential_race_takes_off" target="_blank">Burma's Presidential Race Takes Off</a></div>
Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-63319806675238777892014-06-04T22:55:00.000-07:002014-06-04T22:55:16.486-07:00<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: large;"><b>National security is no excuse for bad behavior (in Burma)</b></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;"><b>BY MIN ZIN JUNE 7, 2013 - 04:48 PM</b></span><br />
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Last month, the local Burmese authorities in Arakan State <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/25/burma-muslims-two-child-limit" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">banned</a> Rohingya Muslims from having more than two children and one wife. Officials in the western state, where hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced by ethnic conflict, decided to revive the long-dormant restriction and reaffirm it in response to the current political situation.</div>
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On Tuesday, hundreds of Arakanese <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/36483?" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">took to the streets</a> to uphold the ban. They even urged the government to extend the law to cover the entire state. Speaking to <i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Irrawaddy</i>, demonstration leader Tha Pwint argued his support for the measure by saying that "we need to have something to keep their population in check." As it stands now, the directive applies only to two Arakan townships where Muslims comprise 94 percent of population.</div>
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The announcement has prompted a great deal of anguished debate. Some politicians who have previously tried to capitalize on anti-Rohingya sentiment are beginning to appreciate that such policies also have costs -- especially when it comes to Burma's international reputation. If these views gain strength, they could help to minimize senseless violence.</div>
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Supporters of the ban argue that keeping the number of Rohingya under control is a matter of national security. It's an issue, they believe, that takes precedence over the protection of human rights. Advocates of the restrictions defend them by cherry-picking examples from other countries: China’s one-child policy, Vietnam's two-child policy, and so forth. What the comparison tends to overlook, however, is that these countries chose these policies as family planning measures. That has little to do with the Arakan law, which targets only one small group for reasons that have little to do with total population control. (The Rohingya make up approximately one percent of Burma's population.)</div>
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The advocates also invoke "national security" without clearly defining what they mean by the concept. A well-known supporter of the ban <a href="http://democracyforburma.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/myanmars-two-child-policy-and-the-human-rights-paradoxes-by-dr-tun-kyaw-nyein/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">claims</a> that one major national security issue at stake is illegal immigration and the corruption of a weak state that allows it to grow. Oddly though, the two-child policy doesn’t apply to Chinese immigrants, who have been a <a href="http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/asia-pacific/ethnic-tensions-grow-in-myanmar" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">source of tension</a> in the past. With this exception, it is hard to buy the notion that illegal immigration is the true underlying concern.</div>
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The real problem then, is not illegal immigration, or xenophobia, but Islamophobia. Advocates of this ban want to protect the dominant Burman Buddhist population. But they fail to recognize the reality that Burma is a <a href="http://www.oxfordburmaalliance.org/ethnic-groups.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">multi-national state</a> that can only survive if it offers equal rights to all of its citizens regardless of ethnicity or religion. They see the issue in zero-sum terms where the growth of the Rohingya population will infringe upon the rights of Buddhists. The resulting policy reaction is one that legitimizes exclusion and violence. In the national security mentality of these advocates, the security provider is none other than the state (i.e. the military). In order to wipe the Rohingya out, they don't mind delegating power back to the <a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/07/happy_birthday_to_burma_s_military" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">once-abusive</a> patron under the justifications of "national interests" and their half-baked understanding of "realpolitik."</div>
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A good example of this is the "<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/22/the_monks_who_hate_muslims" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">969 Movement</a>," a loosely organized Buddhist group that agitates for the protection of Buddhist privileges and strongly advocates the two-child limit. The group makes no distinction between Rohingya and other non-Rohingya Muslims in the country. The group calls for a boycott against businesses run by Muslims and distributes anti-Muslim propaganda, including pamphlets, religious sermons, DVDs, and Facebook posts. The group has also been accused of instigating recent <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/04/969-the-strange-numerological-basis-for-burmas-religious-violence/274816/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">anti-Muslim violence</a>.</div>
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Political leaders in Burma appear to be balancing between the populist anti-Muslim stance and a more liberal position that also offers the benefit of placating the international community.</div>
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President Thein Sein’s spokesperson, for example, has distanced the government from the two-child policy by <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/353227/myanmar-to-examine-two-child-rule-for-rohingya" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">dismissing</a> it as a local initiative. "We will look into it," he has <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/353227/myanmar-to-examine-two-child-rule-for-rohingya" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">told</a> the press -- and that's as far as the government is willing to go. The government, which desperately needs international acceptance and actively seeks assistance, was quick to affirm that it would take international standards into consideration when it implements a population policy in the future. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi also weighed in, saying, with the caution characteristic of her approach to this issue: "If this [reported policy] is true, then it is against the law." Aung San Suu Kyi, who is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has faced <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/11671" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">criticism</a> for failing to defend minority rights.</div>
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The political or moral considerations behind the various stances are, however, ultimately irrelevant. What is important is that the government, at all levels, must act firmly and clearly in the defense of the rights of its citizens, regardless of their backgrounds.</div>
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The response of the international community has been commendable. The United Nations <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/calls-myanmar-child-policy-discriminatory-19289108#.Ua0VaeA8hzo" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">says</a> that imposing a two-child limit on a Muslim minority group would be discriminatory and a violation of elementary human rights. The United States has also made it clear that it <a href="http://www.firstpost.com/world/us-urges-myanmar-to-remove-its-two-child-policy-for-muslims-830277.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">opposes</a> any such "coercive and discriminatory birth limitation policy."</div>
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Both reformist incumbents and opposition groups must be reminded that any democratization process entails defining the<i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">demos</i>, those who constitute the citizenry of the country. This is a fundamental point that has nothing to do with national security. The government must address the two potentially explosive questions integral to any <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Problems-Democratic-Transition-Consolidation-ebook/dp/B005FA24M2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1370591402&sr=8-1&keywords=problem+of+democratic+transition+and+consolidation" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">democratic transition</a>: Who is a citizen of the state, and how are the rules of citizenship defined? How history ultimately judges Burma's transition will depend on how well and fairly they address these questions.</div>
<div style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 25px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">here</a>.</i></div>
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Soe Than WIN/AFP/Getty Images</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #666666; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 32px;"><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/06/07/national_security_is_no_excuse_for_bad_behavior_in_burma" target="_blank">National security is no excuse for bad behavior (in Burma)</a></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;"><b><br /></b></span>Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-58888974223739519782014-06-04T22:49:00.001-07:002014-06-04T22:49:49.996-07:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">Leadership failure in the latest wave of religious violence in Burma</span></b><br />
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<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;">BY MIN ZIN MARCH 26, 2013 - 12:14 PM</span></b><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Tensions between Burma's Buddhists and Muslims have flared up again, this time in Meiktila, a town in central Burma. A brawl between a customer and a seller in a local market on March 20 triggered a fight that broadened into a full-fledged sectarian riot. State-run media reported that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/24/world/asia/after-violence-in-myanmar-a-city-counts-the-dead.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">32 people</a> died in the violence. The government announced a curfew for Meiktila and two nearby towns. For the moment, the situation in Meiktila appears to be under control. It should come as no surprise that most of the lives and property destroyed so far belong to Muslim residents of the community. Independent observers said that the damages -- including the death toll -- are likely higher than the government's report.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">There are some credible reports that security forces have been slow in constraining the violence, and the police special branch seems to have done little besides recording video footage of the scene. Firetrucks ignored Muslim homes that were burned down by the mob.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Meanwhile, rumors of the anti-Muslim attack <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/26/world/asia/worries-over-violence-prompt-shutdown-in-myanmar.html?_r=0" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">spread to other major cities</a>, including Rangoon, where a major commercial area was shut down on Monday due to fears of attacks.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Although the government probably isn't responsible for causing the violence, several observers say that members of the ruling elite -- either hardliner elements in the military or the ruling political party -- have instigated and effectively exploited it to their own ends. In fact, the latest religious bloodshed should not be seen as an isolated incident, but as part of a recurrent <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/13/winners_and_losers_from_the_conflict_in_arakan" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">pattern of violence</a> that started in June 2012 in Burma's western Arakan (Rakhine) State. So far the conflict there between ethnic Arakanese Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims have killed about 200 people and displaced 120,000 villagers, mostly Muslims.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Since then, an anti-Muslim campaign has spread to other cities, including a neighborhood in Rangoon. Some extreme elements within the Buddhist community have called for boycotts against Muslim-run businesses; others have organized <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/30321" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">anti-Muslim groups</a>, such as the ironically-named "969 Movement," after the nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and the nine qualities of the monastic order. Anti-Muslim propaganda, including pamphlets, religious sermons, DVDs, and Facebook posts, is abound. Some elements in the local media and political parties have been active in promoting anti-Muslim sentiment. For instance, a powerful Arakan ethnic party, the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), wrote in its news bulletin that some inhumane actions, such as the Holocaust or the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, can be justified by imperatives of racial survival and national sovereignty.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">At first, such attitudes were mostly restricted to the margins of the public sphere. But the fringe has now seized the mainstream thanks to the failure of the country's political leaders -- both the ruling military as well as the pro-democracy movement -- to take a clear moral and political position against the violence.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">President Thein Sein, an ex-general, proposed that the Rohingya problem be solved by <a href="http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/international/myanmar-moots-camps-or-deportation-for-rohingyas/530195" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">deporting</a> them en masse: "We will send them away if any third country would accept them." When asked if the Rohingyas are Burmese citizens, Aung San Suu Kyi, the moral exemplar of the pro-democracy movement, simply <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2012/08/myanmars-persecuted-rohingyas" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> that she did not know. Aung San Suu Kyi <a href="http://www.dvb.no/uncategorized/bangladesh-slams-suu-kyi%E2%80%99s-comments-on-rohingya/24863" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">shifted the blame</a> to Bangladesh, saying that illegal immigration from that country lies at the root of the problem. Most of Burma's Muslims have lived in the country for generations, and understandably reject such a position as sheer demagoguery.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Aung San Suu Kyi has even <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j9SouLbNDi-JkAHAtEdYyufGukkw?docId=CNG.51e48cd45477d2dda0ed82b302bc8cad.391" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> that she will refrain from applying any kind of "moral leadership" by taking sides in the communal unrest. In this respect, her actions reveal quite a bit of continuity with the ruling military. Both sides prefer to concentrate on security solutions to what is, in fact, a fundamentally political and moral problem. Regarding the ongoing religious flare-up in central Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi preaches the virtues of expediency. According to one of her aides, Aung San Suu Kyi has <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/30058" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">urged</a> the regional police chief to act decisively. "Don't sit by and watch," she told him, according to an account published by <i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Irrawaddy</i> magazine. "Act in accordance with the law."</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">(To be fair to the pro-democracy movement, one of its other leaders, the former student activist <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/13/burmas_moment_of_release" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Min Ko Naing</a>, has played an extraordinarily positive role, releasing a statement calling for an end to the violence and blaming those who instigated the riots. Members of his organization, the 88 Generation Group, contacted Buddhist monks and community leaders and made an immediate trip to Meiktila to give material and moral support to the local population.)</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">What Burma needs right now, in fact, is leadership along the lines of what then-Senator Barack Obama displayed during his presidential campaign in 2008, when he gave a <a href="http://constitutioncenter.org/amoreperfectunion/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">speech</a> on race at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. The presidential candidate refused to be a political opportunist, saying: "I suppose the politically safe thing would be to move on from this episode and just hope that it fades into the woodwork." Instead, he went on to observe that "race is an issue that I believe this nation cannot afford to ignore right now."</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Obama took on his own base and even his own pastor, Reverend Wright, who had spoken sympathetically of anti-white resentment within the African-American community: "Reverend Wright's comments were not only wrong, but divisive. Divisive at a time when we need unity; racially-charged at a time when we need to come together to solve a set of monumental problems that confront us all." Obama posited that the nation can be "perfected" only if people concentrate on the goals that unite them rather than the grievances that divide them.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Of course, no one would ever expect that one speech by one leader is enough to solve problems deeply rooted in history. But, as Obama's example demonstrates, you cannot make progress without frank and honest discussion of stubborn societal problems. This kind of moral and political leadership is precisely what Burma urgently needs.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">History shows us that the process of liberalization can lead to populism and nationalistic violence in societies where institutions are weak. Burma currently displays a range of such weaknesses: widespread poverty, deeply entrenched elite interests, and irresponsible use of freedom of speech. Such challenges can be overcome only with strong leadership from those in power as well as those who aspire to it. As things stand now, however, Burma's elites are failing the country.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></i></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;"><i style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/taxonomy/term/4788" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">here</a>.</i></span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a1718; font-family: Solido, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #666666; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 32px;">Soe Than WIN/AFP/Getty Images</span></span><br />
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<b><a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/26/leadership_failure_in_the_latest_wave_of_religious_violence_in_burma" target="_blank">Leadership failure in the latest wave of religious violence in Burma</a></b>Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-23018840712926656062014-06-04T21:40:00.001-07:002014-06-04T21:45:13.804-07:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: x-large;"><b>Finally, a window for peace in Burma</b></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #990000;"><b>BY MIN ZIN MARCH 6, 2013 - 12:31 AM</b></span></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MoB5fwiHh9w/U4_w23KqcyI/AAAAAAAACZM/JYNqVno-zYw/s1600/antiwar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MoB5fwiHh9w/U4_w23KqcyI/AAAAAAAACZM/JYNqVno-zYw/s1600/antiwar.jpg" height="255" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Civil war has plagued Burma for over sixty years now. At a number of times throughout that period, the ethnic rebel groups fighting for autonomy from the central government attempted to join forces. But their common foe, the Burmese military, consistently refused to have any dealings with alliances that tried to bring together all the restive minorities into a common front. The reason for this was simple: The generals always understood that ethnic rebels tend to be a fractious bunch, and that it's only too easy to incite defections by playing to a particular group's sectional interests (whether it be the offer of a favorable deal or the threat of a harsh crackdown). As a result, the Burmese army developed considerable expertise in the subtleties of divide and rule.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">On February 20, this well-established scenario finally collapsed. For the first time, the Burmese government's senior ministers <a href="http://www.dvb.no/news/ethnic-council-govt-begin-etching-out-plans-for-political-dialogue/26524" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">met</a> with the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), an alliance of 11 ethnic armed groups, in Chiang Mai, Thailand. According to <a href="http://www.president-office.gov.mm/en/briefing-room/news/2013/02/21/id-1604" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">a joint statement</a> released after the meeting, the discussion focused on establishing an agenda for future political dialogue between the government and the ethnic council.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Aung Min, the Burmese government's top peace negotiator, acknowledged that the ethnic groups' grievances are political, and that an ultimate solution to the festering civil war can only be found on the political front.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">It was a significant first step in many ways. A follow-up meeting is scheduled for two months from now, and if it goes well, the prospects for peace will look rosier than they have for years. The government's approach suggests that it is finally willing to recognize the problems that motivate the ethnic groups and their demands for a proper conflict-solving mechanism. For decades the rebel armies have had good reason to doubt the government's sincerity. Now, finally, they can begin to see a potential for trust.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Of course, such hopes will be borne out if this new multilateral approach can be institutionalized, and if more rebel groups can get used to compromise. On a more practical level, further progress depends on persuading the Burmese military that the cost of crackdowns is higher than the cost of accepting a negotiated settlement (all the way from a comprehensive ceasefire to a sustainable political solution). In this respect, it should be noted that no military representatives participated in the February meeting.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The <a href="http://world.time.com/2013/01/28/burmas-kachin-war-renewed-ethnic-strife-threatens-regional-stability/" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">high cost</a> of cracking down on the ethnic minorities is shown by the continuing <a href="http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1125" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Kachin conflict</a>. The escalation of violence, including the Burmese military's use of air power, has caused domestic and international outcry. This underlines the second reason why the preliminary discussion in Thailand was important. The talks included a representative from the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), which is the only ethnic armed group (out of eleven altogether) that hasn't reached a ceasefire agreement with the government. Dr. La Ja, a senior KIO official, said that the situation in Kachin State had improved, <a href="http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/27278" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">adding</a> that "the fighting between the government and the KIO has diminished."</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">In early February, government negotiator Aung Min met KIO leaders in a city on the Chinese border. Both sides agreed to work on reducing military tensions, opening lines of communication, and inviting observers to attend their next meeting. The Chinese government played a crucial role in mediating the talk between the two sides: Luo Zhaohui of the Chinese Foreign Ministry also<a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/aec/Talks-spur-hope-peace-will-be-restored-30199413.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">attended</a> the meeting. This is noteworthy. It appears that China and other Southeast Asia nations are pressing both the Burmese government and ethnic armies to come to the table together in Chiang Mai to explore the possibility of substantive political dialogue.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The more urgent reason for the Burmese government to pursue dialogue is that the country is set to <a href="http://www.globalasia.org/V7N4_Winter_2012/Pavin_Chachavalpongpun.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">assume</a> the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2014. This high-profile honor will give the Burmese government much-needed political legitimacy. The government will host hundreds of ASEAN meetings during the period of its chairmanship, and while this is happening Burmese leaders certainly don't want the visiting heads of ASEAN states to be reading about the Kachin war and ethnic strife in the daily papers. (The authorities have just announced, by the way, that eight new private newspapers can start publishing in April.) Government officials would also prefer to not have to answer questions from visiting journalists about continuing violence in the ethnic regions. Burma would much prefer to use the ASEAN summit as an occasion for highlighting its political reforms and inviting more investment from ASEAN countries and beyond.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">The government negotiating team's conduct of peace talks with the ethnic alliance council also reduces the role of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi in Burma's ethnic politics. The leader of the opposition movement had <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/02/what_aung_san_suu_kyi_didn_t_say_during_her_visit_to_washington" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">shied away</a> from taking a clear stand on the Kachin conflict for over a year now. She has avoided criticizing the Burmese army's actions in Kachin, saying that abuses have occurred on both sides. Her position has outraged the Kachin and many ethnic minority groups, who once lent their support to the Lady in her fight against the old military junta. Early this year, Aung San Suu Kyi <a href="http://www.mizzima.com/special/kachin-battle-report/8695-suu-kyi-refuses-to-intervene-in-kachin-conflict.html" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">said</a> she would require an official invitation to join peace negotiations. In February, she appeared to change her tune by emphasizing her willingness <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/12/aung-san-suu-kyi-burma" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">to play</a> a mediating role<u style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </u>in the Kachin conflict. But the Kachin rebels <a href="http://www.dvb.no/news/kachin-rebels-refuse-to-invite-suu-kyi-to-mediate-peace-process/26397" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #eb1414; font-size: 17px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">turned her down</a> -- attesting dramatically to her diminished role.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">Perhaps the government's effort to enter into a political dialogue with the ethnic alliance could frustrate Aung San Suu Kyi's attempt to make herself relevant in the peace process. It is also increasingly apparent that ethnic groups in Burma no longer look up to Aung San Suu Kyi for moral solidarity and political support (at least for now). That should be a powerful lesson for Burman politicians.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #231f20; font-family: Tiempos, Georgia, serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 32px;">All in all, this new approach to the peace process is a very positive step. The international community should do whatever it can to sustain this unprecedented situation. The United States should not sit idly by. Just as Washington played an important part in facilitating dialogue between Aung San Suu Kyi and the government in 2011-2012, the Obama Administration now needs to put its weight behind the revitalized peace talks -- and should also do what it can to make sure the Burmese military plays along. Of course, all sides must be pragmatic and willing to make compromises for a sustainable solution that the people of this war-torn country deserve.</span></div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/05/finally_a_window_for_peace_in_burma" target="_blank">The FP Link</a></div>
Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5085033972963855759.post-72876417459175108382013-02-01T21:21:00.000-08:002013-09-24T21:30:02.452-07:00Worrying about Burma<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span class="post_date" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 4px 0px 0px;">Posted By Min Zin</span></div>
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<span class="post_date" style="background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 0px; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px 4px 0px 0px;">Friday, February 1, 2013 at 4:28pm</span></div>
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In my last blog post I <a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/01/25/homecoming" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #003366; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">wrote</a> about my experience of returning to Burma (with my wife and newborn daughter) after many years away. That piece has elicited a lot of responses, mostly positive. This one might be a bit different in that respect.</div>
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As I wrote, during our stay in Burma we paid a visit with our relatives to the ancient city of Pagan (<i style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">pronounced bah-gan</i>), the capital of the first Burman Empire founded in the eleventh century by<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anawrahta" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; color: #003366; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">King Anawrahta</a>. Theravada Buddhism took root in central Burma for the first time during the Pagan era and has thrived in the country ever since. Modern-day Burma is still very much under the spell of Pagan -- both in terms of political culture and religious practice.</div>
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Pagan, perhaps because of its many outsized personalities, established ideal models for leaders that still influence political life today. I was struck by how many people I spoke with still seem to expect the solutions to our political problems to come from great heroes (whether it's current president Thein Sein or an opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi) rather than institutions. Our leaders tend to prefer one-man (or one-woman) shows instead of people who develop the necessary political institutions (such as fully developed political parties). Ironically, of late I've found Thein Sein, an ex-general-turned-president and my former political adversary, to be more savvy in this respect. At least he's been trying to get help from technocrats. Aung San Suu Kyi, by contrast, seems to prefer the company of sycophantic gatekeepers and business cronies from the old regime. Lately the Lady appears to be increasingly arrogant and out of touch. Almost all of the intellectuals and dissidents I spoke with -- people who once went to jail with her name on their lips and were ready to die for the cause she represented -- spoke of their growing disappointment with her, while at the same time expressing frustration with the lack of viable alternatives in the opposition movement. Meanwhile, ordinary citizens are still putting all their hopes on the heroes. Burmese people still seem to look for "the good king" or the "pretender to the throne" as the panacea for all of the country's chronic ills. This does not bode well for the future of democracy, I suspect.</div>
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Another thing that struck me was the over-ritualization of Buddhism. Every morning, the first things you hear when you open your eyes are the chanting or the pleas for alms or the announcements about religious events that are broadcast over crackly loudspeakers from neighborhood groups or passing trucks. Anywhere you go in Rangoon, you're constantly bombarded by these amplified requests for donations, usually involving the renovation of this holy site or that monastery. Donations have become big business, contracted out to companies or beggars by temples and even specific monks. I guess this makes sense if it brings in the funds that they need. But it doesn't strike me as especially transparent.</div>
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The Buddha urged his followers to give without any expectation of personal reward. Generosity (dana) is supposed to help you move from a self-centered, greed-driven existence to one that is other-centered and greed-free. Evidence of the importance of charity in Burmese culture is abundant, from the golden glory of the Shwedagon Pagoda (which owes its magnificence to donations from countless devotees) to the familiar sight of mendicant monks receiving alms. Nor is charity reserved for those who choose the religious life. Rest houses are set up all over the country for the comfort of travelers, and vessels of pure, cool water can be found on every roadside, put there for the benefit of passersby. These distinctive clay water pots are replenished daily, often by local people who have little else to offer but who aim to contribute something to the well-being of others.</div>
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In today's Burma however, this rosy image of traditional generosity no longer holds. In many places, charity has become a self-serving tool to acquire wealth and power. Even among religious people, it amounts to little more than a money transfer to the next life. I often heard the loudspeaker broadcasts pushing the message that it is the lack of generosity, and not poverty as such, that is the reason for the destitution. "If you say you can't make donations because you lack wealth, you can never expect to become wealthy," I heard at one point. (In fact, this is a well-known motif of official religious propaganda. During the era of the old military junta, this message was published regularly in the state-run media.) This Catch-22 may be cold comfort for the poor, but for the rulers it makes perfectly good sense. Why blame decades of mismanagement for the country's many economic woes? Isn't poverty just the product of parsimony? That, at least, is what the reigning establishment would like people to believe.</div>
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In Burma, no political practice is possible without involving Buddhism -- and Buddhism has been politicized to such a degree that no religious act is apolitical. The military junta that ruled Burma for so long used religion to enhance their political legitimacy by patronizing the Sangha (the council of monks who preside over the Buddhist religious establishment). Successive rulers have exploited the Sangha's historically important role as a unifying factor for state control.</div>
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The successive civilian as well as military regimes actively organized large-scale ritual events in which they have mobilized the Buddhist population to take part, such as national veneration of the Buddha's sacred tooth relic in 1994, and an umbrella-hoisting ceremony in 1999. In short, the whole country has been transformed into a ritual community, one designed to prevent the emergence of an authentic political and civic community. Worst of all, these ritualized practices are not helping to improve people's everyday morals. There can be little doubt that today's moral climate is dire -- ranging from corruption to substance abuse to status-driven bullying and violence. These are obviously not the values the Buddha aimed to foster.</div>
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As a devotee of Buddhism, I have found the Buddha's teaching (especially the Theravada Buddhism professed by the majority of Burmese) as guidance that enables each of us to improve ourselves and attain benefits on an individual basis. The Buddha did approve of certain collective practices, but in the end liberation can only be achieved individually. No one -- not even the Buddha -- can save you but yourself. At the same time, I'm deeply grateful to some Buddhist abbots and lay devotees not only for their spiritual guidance but also for their great works of charity for the poor and the victims of natural disasters. It seems to me that the ritualized Buddhism screaming out those loudspeakers strikes has little in common with that genuine spirit of care for others.</div>
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My return to Burma was uplifting. My reunion with my family and friends filled me with joy. It was great to be home again. At the same time, I felt quite alienated by these two visible flaws in the public life of the country: personalized politics and ritualized religion. Go ahead and blame me for it. I don't mind.</div>
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<a href="http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/02/01/worrying_about_burma" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a></div>
Min Zinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06412842493873038750noreply@blogger.com0